PFR

Buffalo Bills vs. Denver BroncosWeek 16 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Empower Field at Mile High · Broncos at home

The ratings project Buffalo Bills 25, Denver Broncos 23 (BUF -1.8) and give the Bills a 55% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.

Bills vs. Broncos prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 87
Buffalo Bills

7-1 · No. 2 in the ratings

25
Denver Broncos

7-2 · No. 11 in the ratings

23
BUF 55%Win probability45% DEN
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadBUF -1.8——
Total48.6——
Win prob.BUF 55%——
Moneyline——

No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 16 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatBUFDEN
Record7-17-2
Division1st, AFC E1st, AFC W
Rating+5.82+2.511
Adj Off27.9123.515
Adj Def22.11221.07
Points per game32.0122.020
Points allowed per game23.41620.710
Playoff odds100%96%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Bills vs. Broncos matchup stats season to date

When the Bills have the ball

StatBUFoffDENdef
Yards per pass attempt7.535.76
Yards per rush4.884.624
Starting field positionOwn 342Own 284
EPA per play+0.1403-0.00913
Adj. EPA per play+0.0771-0.01712
Success rate47.7%641.8%9
Passing EPA per play+0.2503+0.01310
Rushing EPA per play-0.0014-0.04726
CPOE4.06-0.417
Explosive play rate11.6%18.0%13
Points per game32.0120.710
Points per drive3.0111.928
Red zone TD rate69.0%755.6%9
3rd down conversion43.2%841.2%21
Turnovers per game1.50221.4414
Sack rate5.7%176.4%12
Penalties per game8.5308.19

When the Broncos have the ball

StatDENoffBUFdef
Yards per pass attempt5.6246.013
Yards per rush3.9274.09
Starting field positionOwn 3019Own 3118
EPA per play+0.01315+0.01917
Adj. EPA per play+0.02112-0.0318
Success rate40.5%2845.7%25
Passing EPA per play+0.08516+0.07116
Rushing EPA per play-0.09916-0.08617
CPOE-1.124-3.54
Explosive play rate6.5%298.5%18
Points per game22.02023.416
Points per drive2.01232.1714
Red zone TD rate64.5%1466.7%20
3rd down conversion32.4%3238.6%12
Turnovers per game0.6731.5010
Sack rate3.2%34.8%23
Penalties per game7.7217.316

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Bills and Broncos recent results

Buffalo Bills

Wk 9@Minnesota VikingsW23-6
Wk 8vsBaltimore RavensW36-10
Wk 6@Las Vegas RaidersW33-30
Wk 5@Los Angeles RamsW37-34OT
Wk 4vsNew England PatriotsL26-29

Denver Broncos

Wk 9@Carolina PanthersW26-21
Wk 8vsKansas City ChiefsW28-24
Wk 7@Arizona CardinalsW30-16
Wk 6vsSeattle SeahawksW17-14OT
Wk 5@Los Angeles ChargersW23-17

Players to watch season totals

Buffalo Bills

  • Josh AllenQB · #17156/236, 2,027 yds, 12 TD, 6 INT
  • James CookRB · #4169 car, 814 yds, 8 TD
  • Khalil ShakirWR · #1031 rec, 412 yds, 1 TD
  • Dalton KincaidTE · #8630 rec, 429 yds, 2 TD

Denver Broncos

  • Bo NixQB · #10174/287, 1,730 yds, 11 TD, 4 INT
  • J.K. DobbinsRB · #2798 car, 324 yds, 3 TD
  • Jaylen WaddleWR · #1730 rec, 337 yds, 2 TD
  • Courtland SuttonWR · #1425 rec, 266 yds, 2 TD

Bills vs. Broncos: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Bills vs. Broncos?
The ratings project Buffalo Bills 25, Denver Broncos 23, 48.6 total points.
Who is favored, the Bills or the Broncos?
The ratings make the Bills 1.8-point favorites with a 55% chance to win.
When and where is Bills vs. Broncos?
Fri, Dec 25 · 4:30 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High, the Broncos' home field.

More Week 16 predictions

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