PFR

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City ChiefsWeek 16 Prediction, Odds and Spread

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Chiefs at home

The ratings project Kansas City Chiefs 23.3, San Francisco 49ers 23.0 (a pick 'em) and give the Chiefs a 51% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.

49ers vs. Chiefs prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 85
San Francisco 49ers

7-1 · No. 4 in the ratings

23.0
Kansas City Chiefs

6-2 · No. 8 in the ratings

23.3
SF 49%Win probability51% KC
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadPick 'em——
Total46.3——
Win prob.KC 51%——
Moneyline——

No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 16 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatSFKC
Record7-16-2
Division1st, NFC W2nd, AFC W
Rating+4.34+3.08
Adj Off25.8423.911
Adj Def21.6920.95
Points per game29.4325.310
Points allowed per game19.5617.93
Playoff odds97%93%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

49ers vs. Chiefs matchup stats season to date

When the 49ers have the ball

StatSFoffKCdef
Yards per pass attempt8.015.811
Yards per rush4.953.73
Starting field positionOwn 3113Own 3012
EPA per play+0.1641-0.0538
Adj. EPA per play+0.0723-0.0229
Success rate52.5%141.3%7
Passing EPA per play+0.2901+0.02311
Rushing EPA per play-0.0013-0.1755
CPOE4.93-4.33
Explosive play rate10.7%26.6%5
Points per game29.4317.93
Points per drive2.9521.887
Red zone TD rate87.9%150.0%4
3rd down conversion51.7%236.7%10
Turnovers per game1.25161.5010
Sack rate2.9%14.3%31
Penalties per game6.366.523

When the Chiefs have the ball

StatKCoffSFdef
Yards per pass attempt7.275.89
Yards per rush5.313.41
Starting field positionOwn 3112Own 3227
EPA per play+0.1194-0.0637
Adj. EPA per play+0.0497-0.0356
Success rate48.3%443.4%14
Passing EPA per play+0.14911+0.02412
Rushing EPA per play+0.0732-0.2081
CPOE2.283.426
Explosive play rate10.1%44.5%1
Points per game25.31019.56
Points per drive2.35112.3320
Red zone TD rate67.7%1050.0%4
3rd down conversion41.7%940.4%18
Turnovers per game0.7541.634
Sack rate3.6%64.7%25
Penalties per game6.996.327

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

49ers and Chiefs recent results

San Francisco 49ers

Wk 9vsLas Vegas RaidersW38-17
Wk 7@Atlanta FalconsL20-29
Wk 6vsWashington CommandersW23-17
Wk 5@Seattle SeahawksW32-29
Wk 4vsDenver BroncosW24-14

Kansas City Chiefs

Wk 9vsNew York JetsW35-12
Wk 8@Denver BroncosL24-28
Wk 7@Seattle SeahawksL3-20
Wk 6vsLos Angeles ChargersW22-6
Wk 4@Las Vegas RaidersW30-27

Players to watch season totals

San Francisco 49ers

  • Brock PurdyQB · #13163/236, 1,980 yds, 17 TD, 5 INT
  • Christian McCaffreyRB · #23102 car, 457 yds, 9 TD
  • George KittleTE · #8538 rec, 483 yds, 5 TD
  • Mike EvansWR · #527 rec, 420 yds, 3 TD

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Patrick MahomesQB · #15177/263, 2,037 yds, 14 TD, 4 INT
  • Kenneth Walker IIIRB · #9159 car, 872 yds, 7 TD
  • Travis KelceTE · #8733 rec, 482 yds, 2 TD
  • Xavier WorthyWR · #133 rec, 278 yds, 1 TD

49ers vs. Chiefs: quick answers

What is the predicted score of 49ers vs. Chiefs?
The ratings project San Francisco 49ers 23.0, Kansas City Chiefs 23.3, 46.3 total points.
Who is favored, the 49ers or the Chiefs?
The ratings call it a pick 'em.
When and where is 49ers vs. Chiefs?
Sun, Dec 27 · 4:25 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs' home field.

More Week 16 predictions

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