2026 Playoff Odds
10,000 simulations of the 152 remaining regular-season games, each decided by the ratings' win probability, then the NFL's seeding rules and a bracket · through Week 8 · as of Mon, Nov 2, 1:06 PM ET. How the odds work
AFC
| Seed 1 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-2 | +6.51 | 12.1 | 98 | 96 | 23 | 23 | 28 | 17 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6-1 | +5.03 | 12.4 | 98 | 77 | 36 | 36 | 23 | 14 |
| Denver Broncos | 6-2 | +2.410 | 11.4 | 91 | 60 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5-2 | +2.58 | 11.3 | 88 | 49 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5-2 | +2.311 | 10.6 | 85 | 38 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | +1.713 | 11.0 | 84 | 43 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| New England Patriots | 5-3 | +3.26 | 10.3 | 83 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-3 | -3.527 | 8.8 | 31 | 6 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4-4 | -1.218 | 8.0 | 15 | 2 | <1 | <1 | 1 | <1 |
| Houston Texans | 2-5 | +1.215 | 7.7 | 15 | 3 | 0 | · | 1 | <1 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-4 | -3.024 | 7.7 | 12 | 3 | 0 | · | <1 | <1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-6 | -3.024 | 6.0 | 1 | <1 | 0 | · | 0 | 0 |
| New York Jets | 2-6 | -4.230 | 5.1 | <1 | 0 | 0 | · | 0 | 0 |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-6 | -4.331 | 4.5 | <1 | 0 | 0 | · | 0 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Chargerse | 0-7 | -3.628 | 3.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | · | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee Titanse | 1-7 | -6.032 | 3.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | · | 0 | 0 |
NFC
| Seed 1 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 6-1 | +3.74 | 12.1 | 95 | 75 | 39 | 39 | 22 | 11 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-1 | +3.17 | 11.8 | 93 | 55 | 32 | 32 | 20 | 9 |
| Detroit Lions | 5-2 | +2.59 | 10.7 | 80 | 27 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4-3 | +5.52 | 10.7 | 77 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 9 |
| New York Giants | 4-2-1 | -1.620 | 9.0 | 68 | 66 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Chicago Bears | 5-2 | +2.112 | 10.0 | 59 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-5 | +1.614 | 8.1 | 54 | 53 | <1 | <1 | 6 | 2 |
| Green Bay Packers | 5-3 | +1.216 | 9.4 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 4-4 | +3.35 | 9.0 | 37 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-4 | -2.321 | 7.2 | 22 | 20 | <1 | <1 | 1 | <1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-5 | -1.519 | 7.1 | 19 | 17 | <1 | <1 | 1 | <1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3-5 | -0.917 | 7.2 | 19 | 18 | 0 | · | 1 | <1 |
| Washington Commanders | 2-4-1 | -2.422 | 6.7 | 13 | 13 | 0 | · | 1 | <1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 2-5 | -3.023 | 6.3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | · | <1 | <1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-6 | -3.126 | 5.7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | · | <1 | 0 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-5 | -4.229 | 6.6 | 2 | <1 | 0 | · | <1 | 0 |
Percentages are shares of the simulations. x: clinched a playoff spot, y: the division, z: a first-round bye; e: eliminated. Clinches and eliminations come from the simulation (a team at 100% or 0% in every run), not from the league's official clinching math, so they can lag it by a game.