AFC East · 2026
Buffalo Bills
6-1 (0-1 AFC East · 4-1 AFC)1st in the AFC East
Last: W 36-10 vs Baltimore RavensNext: at Minnesota VikingsLine BUF -2.5 · Model Pick 'em
- Rating
- +5.03
- Adj Off
- 28.21
- Adj Def
- 23.215
- Playoffs
- 98%
Style profile
Style
What the offense does with the ball, and what the defense faces.
| Stat | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Run rate | 42.5%7 | 34.4%28 |
| Early-down pass rate | 50.4%17 | 54.2%7 |
| Plays per game | 65.611 | 69.34 |
| Time of possession | 30:1716 | 30:5312 |
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.72 | 6.317 |
| Yards per rush | 5.14 | 3.910 |
| Starting field position | Own 352 | Own 3010 |
Efficiency and EPA
Down-by-down quality, measured in predicted points.
| Stat | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.1691 | +0.08528 |
| Adj. EPA per play | +0.0851 | +0.01319 |
| Success rate | 48.8%4 | 47.2%29 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.2841 | +0.17326 |
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.0133 | -0.08319 |
| CPOE | 4.06 | -1.69 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%1 | 8.9%21 |
Situational
Scoring, red zone finishing, money downs, ball security, protection and discipline.
| Stat | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.31 | 25.924 |
| Points per drive | 3.151 | 2.4522 |
| Red zone TD rate | 71.0%5 | 68.8%22 |
| 3rd down conversion | 44.2%5 | 41.9%23 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.5723 | 1.2916 |
| Sack rate | 4.9%11 | 4.7%25 |
| Penalties per game | 8.630 | 7.713 |
Rank out of 32 teams, regular season only. Green is good for the team, red is bad. Blue only orients neutral traits like pace and pass rate.
Schedule and resultsProjected 12.4-4.6
| Date | Opponent | Result / projection | Off EPA | Def EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13Wk 1 | @15Houston Texans | W36-31 | +0.28 | +0.07 |
| Sep 17Wk 2 | 9Detroit Lions | W41-31 | +0.44 | +0.28 |
| Sep 27Wk 3 | 28Los Angeles Chargers | W24-16 | -0.07 | -0.07 |
| Oct 4Wk 4 | 6New England PatriotsDIV | L26-29 | +0.11 | +0.19 |
| Oct 12Wk 5 | @5Los Angeles Rams | W37-34OT | +0.27 | +0.27 |
| Oct 18Wk 6 | @24Las Vegas Raiders | W33-30 | +0.18 | +0.13 |
| Nov 1Wk 8 | 18Baltimore Ravens | W36-10 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| Nov 9Wk 9 | @7Minnesota Vikings | -0.451% | — | — |
| Nov 15Wk 10 | @30New York JetsDIV | -7.772% | — | — |
| Nov 22Wk 11 | 31Miami DolphinsDIV | -10.879% | — | — |
| Nov 26Wk 12 | 11Kansas City Chiefs | -4.263% | — | — |
| Dec 6Wk 13 | @6New England PatriotsDIV | -0.351% | — | — |
| Dec 13Wk 14 | @16Green Bay Packers | -2.357% | — | — |
| Dec 19Wk 15 | 12Chicago Bears | -4.463% | — | — |
| Dec 25Wk 16 | @10Denver Broncos | -1.153% | — | — |
| Jan 3Wk 17 | @31Miami DolphinsDIV | -7.872% | — | — |
| Jan 10Wk 18 | 30New York JetsDIV | -10.779% | — | — |
Unplayed games show the projected spread from this team's view (negative = favored) and its win probability, from the ratings. How the ratings work.
Key players
Sorted by how much of the offense runs through them; defenders by tackles. Regular season only. Bold rows are the primary option at each spot; the shade tracks their share.
Offense
Quarterbacks
Share of pass attempts| Player | Share | C/A | Cmp% | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17Josh AllenYr 9 | 100% | 135/205 | 65.8% | 1793 | 8.7 | 11 | 5 |
Running backs
Share of rushes| Player | Share | Car | Yds | Y/C | TD | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4James CookYr 5 | 64% | 138 | 707 | 5.1 | 7 | 12 |
| 7Ray DavisYr 3 | 5% | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 | 3 |
Receivers and tight ends
Share of pass attempts| Player | Share | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86Dalton KincaidTE Yr 4 | 13% | 27 | 401 | 14.9 | 2 |
| 10Khalil ShakirWR Yr 5 | 13% | 27 | 354 | 13.1 | 1 |
| 0Keon ColemanWR Yr 3 | 10% | 20 | 287 | 14.3 | 3 |
| 2DJ MooreWR Yr 9 | 8% | 16 | 260 | 16.3 | 2 |
| 88Dawson KnoxTE Yr 8 | 4% | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 1 |
Defense
Defensive line
Total tackles| Player | Tkl | TFL | Sck | QBH | FF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96Deone WalkerDT Yr 2 | 10 | 5 | 1.0 | 6 | 0 |
| 90DeWayne CarterDT Yr 3 | 8 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| 94Landon JacksonDE Yr 2 | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| 98T.J. SandersDT Yr 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 |
| 91Ed OliverDT Yr 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 7 | 0 |
| 97Greg GainesDT Yr 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Linebackers
Total tackles| Player | Tkl | TFL | Sck | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8Terrel BernardLB Yr 5 | 27 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 |
| 42Dorian WilliamsLB Yr 4 | 22 | 4 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 |
| 15Greg RousseauLB Yr 6 | 16 | 9 | 7.0 | 7 | 0 |
| 99TJ ParkerLB R | 6 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 52Kaleb Elarms-OrrLB R | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 |
Defensive backs
Total tackles| Player | Tkl | PD | INT | FF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24Cole BishopSAF Yr 3 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 47Christian BenfordCB Yr 5 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 22C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSAF Yr 8 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 21Davison IgbinosunCB R | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| 3Damar HamlinSAF Yr 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 1Maxwell HairstonCB Yr 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 33Te'Cory CouchDB Yr 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Special teams
Kickers
By kicks attempted| Player | FG | FG% | Long | XP | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Tyler BassYr 7 | 16/16 | 100% | 56 | 21/23 | 69 |
Punters
By punts| Player | Punts | Avg | Long | In 20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39Tommy Doman Jr.R | 14 | 48.5 | 63 | 6 | 0 |