PFR

Washington Commanders vs. Minnesota VikingsWeek 16 Prediction, Odds and Spread

U.S. Bank Stadium · Vikings at home

The ratings project Minnesota Vikings 23, Washington Commanders 17 (MIN -5.9) and give the Vikings a 67% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.

Commanders vs. Vikings prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 36
Washington Commanders

3-5-1 · No. 21 in the ratings

17
Minnesota Vikings

6-2 · No. 13 in the ratings

23
WAS 33%Win probability67% MIN
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadMIN -5.9——
Total39.7——
Win prob.MIN 67%——
Moneyline——

No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 16 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatWASMIN
Record3-5-16-2
Division3rd, NFC E3rd, NFC N
Rating-2.221+2.213
Adj Off22.02020.826
Adj Def24.22318.61
Points per game21.82118.327
Points allowed per game24.82014.51
Playoff odds13%83%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Commanders vs. Vikings matchup stats season to date

When the Commanders have the ball

StatWASoffMINdef
Yards per pass attempt5.9204.92
Yards per rush4.5104.421
Starting field positionOwn 3024Own 3011
EPA per play-0.01219-0.1681
Adj. EPA per play-0.01318-0.0861
Success rate43.0%1736.7%1
Passing EPA per play+0.05119-0.1831
Rushing EPA per play-0.12620-0.1498
CPOE2.09-6.81
Explosive play rate7.5%228.0%12
Points per game21.82114.51
Points per drive1.90261.471
Red zone TD rate66.7%1142.3%1
3rd down conversion33.3%3031.2%3
Turnovers per game0.7861.634
Sack rate5.6%1510.3%1
Penalties per game7.2148.010

When the Vikings have the ball

StatMINoffWASdef
Yards per pass attempt5.2276.319
Yards per rush4.3154.112
Starting field positionOwn 334Own 3121
EPA per play-0.15131+0.03720
Adj. EPA per play-0.07731+0.02623
Success rate37.1%3046.0%26
Passing EPA per play-0.11729+0.09019
Rushing EPA per play-0.20327-0.06325
CPOE-2.9262.624
Explosive play rate7.6%197.0%9
Points per game18.32724.820
Points per drive1.57302.3219
Red zone TD rate52.6%2774.3%29
3rd down conversion33.3%3039.3%16
Turnovers per game1.0081.568
Sack rate8.0%264.6%27
Penalties per game5.416.622

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Commanders and Vikings recent results

Washington Commanders

Wk 10@New York GiantsW24-21
Wk 9vsLos Angeles RamsL13-20
Wk 8vsPhiladelphia EaglesW27-10
Wk 6@San Francisco 49ersL17-23
Wk 5vsNew York GiantsT27-27OT

Minnesota Vikings

Wk 9vsBuffalo BillsL6-23
Wk 8@Detroit LionsL15-19
Wk 7vsIndianapolis ColtsW16-10
Wk 5@New Orleans SaintsW23-13
Wk 4vsMiami DolphinsW15-10

Players to watch season totals

Washington Commanders

  • Jayden DanielsQB · #5138/213, 1,499 yds, 10 TD, 2 INT
  • Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · #2267 car, 239 yds, 2 TD
  • Stefon DiggsWR · #336 rec, 386 yds, 6 TD
  • Antonio WilliamsWR · #1428 rec, 326 yds, 2 TD

Minnesota Vikings

  • Kyler MurrayQB · #1100/154, 1,022 yds, 5 TD, 3 INT
  • Aaron JonesRB · #33115 car, 474 yds, 2 TD
  • T.J. HockensonTE · #8735 rec, 328 yds, 3 TD
  • Justin JeffersonWR · #1831 rec, 393 yds, 4 TD

Commanders vs. Vikings: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Commanders vs. Vikings?
The ratings project Washington Commanders 17, Minnesota Vikings 23, 39.7 total points.
Who is favored, the Commanders or the Vikings?
The ratings make the Vikings 5.9-point favorites with a 67% chance to win.
When and where is Commanders vs. Vikings?
Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium, the Vikings' home field.

More Week 16 predictions

All Week 16 gamesWashington CommandersMinnesota Vikings