PFR

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami DolphinsWeek 16 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Hard Rock Stadium · Dolphins at home

The ratings project Miami Dolphins 22, Los Angeles Chargers 20 (MIA -1.5) and give the Dolphins a 55% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.

Chargers vs. Dolphins prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 24
Los Angeles Chargers

0-8 · No. 30 in the ratings

20
Miami Dolphins

1-7 · No. 29 in the ratings

22
LAC 45%Win probability55% MIA
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadMIA -1.5——
Total41.5——
Win prob.MIA 55%——
Moneyline——

No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 16 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatLACMIA
Record0-81-7
Division4th, AFC W4th, AFC E
Rating-4.630-4.629
Adj Off19.82919.332
Adj Def24.42423.921
Points per game15.13215.831
Points allowed per game27.42825.024
Playoff odds0%0%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Chargers vs. Dolphins matchup stats season to date

When the Chargers have the ball

StatLACoffMIAdef
Yards per pass attempt5.2287.332
Yards per rush4.1214.214
Starting field positionOwn 2830Own 3731
EPA per play-0.22032+0.11132
Adj. EPA per play-0.09632+0.05231
Success rate36.2%3248.4%32
Passing EPA per play-0.18931+0.25531
Rushing EPA per play-0.26732-0.06922
CPOE-6.03110.832
Explosive play rate6.8%288.8%19
Points per game15.13225.024
Points per drive1.27322.7432
Red zone TD rate52.4%2862.9%16
3rd down conversion34.2%2847.4%29
Turnovers per game2.38320.8829
Sack rate9.8%314.5%29
Penalties per game8.3297.316

When the Dolphins have the ball

StatMIAoffLACdef
Yards per pass attempt5.7227.231
Yards per rush4.4134.420
Starting field positionOwn 2831Own 3732
EPA per play-0.06726+0.00615
Adj. EPA per play-0.04326-0.01313
Success rate39.2%2944.0%18
Passing EPA per play-0.01524+0.07417
Rushing EPA per play-0.14122-0.07821
CPOE-4.6300.821
Explosive play rate8.0%179.2%26
Points per game15.83127.428
Points per drive1.70282.3623
Red zone TD rate54.2%2660.0%11
3rd down conversion41.6%1034.3%8
Turnovers per game1.25161.5010
Sack rate8.6%304.7%24
Penalties per game7.5198.46

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Chargers and Dolphins recent results

Los Angeles Chargers

Wk 9vsHouston TexansL22-44
Wk 8@Los Angeles RamsL9-24
Wk 6@Kansas City ChiefsL6-22
Wk 5vsDenver BroncosL17-23
Wk 4@Seattle SeahawksL23-30

Miami Dolphins

Wk 9vsDetroit LionsL9-19
Wk 8vsNew England PatriotsL19-24
Wk 7@New York JetsW28-25
Wk 5vsCincinnati BengalsL24-31
Wk 4@Minnesota VikingsL10-15

Players to watch season totals

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Justin HerbertQB · #10144/235, 1,591 yds, 6 TD, 11 INT
  • Omarion HamptonRB · #8102 car, 369 yds, 3 TD
  • Tre HarrisWR · #921 rec, 262 yds, 0 TD
  • Oronde Gadsden IITE · #8619 rec, 172 yds, 1 TD

Miami Dolphins

  • Malik WillisQB · #2121/208, 1,396 yds, 6 TD, 6 INT
  • Ollie Gordon IIRB · #0107 car, 463 yds, 4 TD
  • Malik WashingtonWR · #633 rec, 350 yds, 1 TD
  • Greg DulcichTE · #8524 rec, 270 yds, 0 TD

Chargers vs. Dolphins: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Chargers vs. Dolphins?
The ratings project Los Angeles Chargers 20, Miami Dolphins 22, 41.5 total points.
Who is favored, the Chargers or the Dolphins?
The ratings make the Dolphins 1.5-point favorites with a 55% chance to win.
When and where is Chargers vs. Dolphins?
Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium, the Dolphins' home field.

More Week 16 predictions

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