Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta FalconsWeek 16 Prediction, Odds and Spread
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Falcons at homeNFC South division game
The ratings project Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23, Atlanta Falcons 21 (TB -2.2) and give the Buccaneers a 57% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction: score, spread and over/under
Projected scoreThrill 53
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
233-6 · No. 16 in the ratings
Atlanta Falcons
213-6 · No. 20 in the ratings
TB 57%Win probability43% ATL
| vs. marketPrediction vs. the market | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TB -2.2 | — | — |
| Total | 43.5 | — | — |
| Win prob.probability | TB 57% | — | — |
| Moneyline | — | — | |
No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 16 lines · How the projections work
Tale of the tape season to date
| Stat | TB | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Division | 3rd, NFC S | 4th, NFC S |
| Rating | +1.616 | -2.120 |
| Adj Off | 22.817 | 21.624 |
| Adj Def | 21.28 | 23.820 |
| Points per game | 22.418 | 20.923 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.87 | 24.820 |
| Playoff odds | 52% | 13% |
Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons matchup stats season to date
When the Buccaneers have the ball
| Stat | TBoff | ATLdef |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass attempt | 4.830 | 6.114 |
| Yards per rush | 5.13 | 4.623 |
| Starting field position | Own 335 | Own 3429 |
| EPA per play | -0.10128 | +0.00014 |
| Adj. EPA per play | -0.04727 | +0.00215 |
| Success rate | 41.1%26 | 44.4%21 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16530 | +0.05315 |
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.0278 | -0.08220 |
| CPOE | -3.627 | 3.425 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.6%14 | 9.2%23 |
| Points per game | 22.418 | 24.820 |
| Points per drive | 2.0421 | 2.1613 |
| Red zone TD rate | 50.0%29 | 64.9%17 |
| 3rd down conversion | 36.3%23 | 42.6%24 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.6725 | 1.2218 |
| Sack rate | 8.6%29 | 5.5%18 |
| Penalties per game | 7.011 | 7.219 |
When the Falcons have the ball
| Stat | ATLoff | TBdef |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.119 | 6.012 |
| Yards per rush | 4.94 | 3.87 |
| Starting field position | Own 2832 | Own 3120 |
| EPA per play | -0.06124 | -0.1602 |
| Adj. EPA per play | -0.03124 | -0.0862 |
| Success rate | 43.6%15 | 40.3%3 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10328 | -0.1472 |
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.0085 | -0.1852 |
| CPOE | -6.532 | -2.65 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.6%15 | 6.5%3 |
| Points per game | 20.923 | 19.87 |
| Points per drive | 2.548 | 1.834 |
| Red zone TD rate | 62.5%19 | 48.4%3 |
| 3rd down conversion | 34.9%27 | 34.5%9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.7827 | 2.221 |
| Sack rate | 5.2%12 | 4.9%21 |
| Penalties per game | 6.78 | 6.721 |
Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.
Buccaneers and Falcons recent results
Players to watch season totals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Baker MayfieldQB · #686/142, 922 yds, 3 TD, 4 INT
- Bucky IrvingRB · #7167 car, 825 yds, 7 TD
- Emeka EgbukaWR · #231 rec, 278 yds, 2 TD
- Chris Godwin Jr.WR · #1429 rec, 259 yds, 0 TD
Atlanta Falcons
- Michael Penix Jr.QB · #9124/199, 1,444 yds, 10 TD, 6 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRB · #7169 car, 880 yds, 5 TD
- Drake LondonWR · #544 rec, 692 yds, 1 TD
- Kyle PittsTE · #825 rec, 220 yds, 4 TD
Buccaneers vs. Falcons: quick answers
- What is the predicted score of Buccaneers vs. Falcons?
- The ratings project Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23, Atlanta Falcons 21, 43.5 total points.
- Who is favored, the Buccaneers or the Falcons?
- The ratings make the Buccaneers 2.2-point favorites with a 57% chance to win.
- When and where is Buccaneers vs. Falcons?
- Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Falcons' home field.
More Week 16 predictions
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- Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints
- Carolina Panthers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
- New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
- Washington Commanders vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Tennessee Titans vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Dallas Cowboys
- New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions
All Week 16 gamesTampa Bay BuccaneersAtlanta FalconsWeek 8 meeting at TB