PFR

Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo BillsWeek 15 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Highmark Stadium · Bills at home

The ratings project Buffalo Bills 28, Chicago Bears 24 (BUF -4.1) and give the Bills a 62% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.

Bears vs. Bills prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 89
Chicago Bears

7-2 · No. 7 in the ratings

24
Buffalo Bills

7-1 · No. 2 in the ratings

28
CHI 38%Win probability62% BUF
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadBUF -4.1——
Total51.3——
Win prob.BUF 62%——
Moneyline——

No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 15 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatCHIBUF
Record7-27-1
Division1st, NFC N1st, AFC E
Rating+3.27+5.82
Adj Off25.2627.91
Adj Def22.01122.112
Points per game26.8732.01
Points allowed per game20.4923.416
Playoff odds84%100%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Bears vs. Bills matchup stats season to date

When the Bears have the ball

StatCHIoffBUFdef
Yards per pass attempt6.6126.013
Yards per rush4.4144.09
Starting field positionOwn 3111Own 3118
EPA per play+0.03812+0.01917
Adj. EPA per play+0.02013-0.0318
Success rate47.1%745.7%25
Passing EPA per play+0.11213+0.07116
Rushing EPA per play-0.06211-0.08617
CPOE4.25-3.54
Explosive play rate9.1%98.5%18
Points per game26.8723.416
Points per drive2.29122.1714
Red zone TD rate58.7%2166.7%20
3rd down conversion45.3%438.6%12
Turnovers per game2.11301.5010
Sack rate5.4%134.8%23
Penalties per game8.0237.316

When the Bills have the ball

StatBUFoffCHIdef
Yards per pass attempt7.536.926
Yards per rush4.884.522
Starting field positionOwn 342Own 3225
EPA per play+0.1403-0.04310
Adj. EPA per play+0.0771-0.01910
Success rate47.7%640.8%4
Passing EPA per play+0.2503-0.0138
Rushing EPA per play-0.0014-0.09814
CPOE4.06-0.813
Explosive play rate11.6%19.0%22
Points per game32.0120.49
Points per drive3.0112.2316
Red zone TD rate69.0%761.8%14
3rd down conversion43.2%822.8%1
Turnovers per game1.50221.2218
Sack rate5.7%178.0%3
Penalties per game8.5307.415

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Bears and Bills recent results

Chicago Bears

Wk 9vsTampa Bay BuccaneersW27-24
Wk 8@Seattle SeahawksW34-17
Wk 7vsNew England PatriotsW30-24
Wk 6@Atlanta FalconsW31-23
Wk 5@Green Bay PackersL7-31

Buffalo Bills

Wk 9@Minnesota VikingsW23-6
Wk 8vsBaltimore RavensW36-10
Wk 6@Las Vegas RaidersW33-30
Wk 5@Los Angeles RamsW37-34OT
Wk 4vsNew England PatriotsL26-29

Players to watch season totals

Chicago Bears

  • Caleb WilliamsQB · #18134/195, 1,546 yds, 8 TD, 5 INT
  • D'Andre SwiftRB · #4155 car, 576 yds, 10 TD
  • Luther Burden IIIWR · #1049 rec, 644 yds, 4 TD
  • Colston LovelandTE · #8437 rec, 363 yds, 2 TD

Buffalo Bills

  • Josh AllenQB · #17156/236, 2,027 yds, 12 TD, 6 INT
  • James CookRB · #4169 car, 814 yds, 8 TD
  • Khalil ShakirWR · #1031 rec, 412 yds, 1 TD
  • Dalton KincaidTE · #8630 rec, 429 yds, 2 TD

Bears vs. Bills: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Bears vs. Bills?
The ratings project Chicago Bears 24, Buffalo Bills 28, 51.3 total points.
Who is favored, the Bears or the Bills?
The ratings make the Bills 4.1-point favorites with a 62% chance to win.
When and where is Bears vs. Bills?
Sat, Dec 19 · 8:20 PM ET at Highmark Stadium, the Bills' home field.

More Week 15 predictions

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