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New England Patriots vs. Kansas City ChiefsWeek 15 Prediction, Odds and Spread

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Chiefs at home

The ratings project Kansas City Chiefs 24, New England Patriots 21 (KC -2.5) and give the Chiefs a 58% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.

Patriots vs. Chiefs prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 73
New England Patriots

5-4 · No. 14 in the ratings

21
Kansas City Chiefs

6-2 · No. 8 in the ratings

24
NE 42%Win probability58% KC
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadKC -2.5——
Total45.4——
Win prob.KC 58%——
Moneyline——

No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 15 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatNEKC
Record5-46-2
Division2nd, AFC E2nd, AFC W
Rating+1.914+3.08
Adj Off24.2923.911
Adj Def22.31320.95
Points per game23.41425.310
Points allowed per game23.01517.93
Playoff odds68%93%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Patriots vs. Chiefs matchup stats season to date

When the Patriots have the ball

StatNEoffKCdef
Yards per pass attempt7.445.811
Yards per rush4.5113.73
Starting field positionOwn 3023Own 3012
EPA per play+0.04010-0.0538
Adj. EPA per play+0.0309-0.0229
Success rate45.5%1041.3%7
Passing EPA per play+0.1619+0.02311
Rushing EPA per play-0.14924-0.1755
CPOE6.52-4.33
Explosive play rate9.8%56.6%5
Points per game23.41417.93
Points per drive2.10191.887
Red zone TD rate69.4%650.0%4
3rd down conversion40.4%1136.7%10
Turnovers per game2.11301.5010
Sack rate5.7%194.3%31
Penalties per game7.3186.523

When the Chiefs have the ball

StatKCoffNEdef
Yards per pass attempt7.276.723
Yards per rush5.313.98
Starting field positionOwn 3112Own 3013
EPA per play+0.1194+0.04221
Adj. EPA per play+0.0497+0.00919
Success rate48.3%443.8%17
Passing EPA per play+0.14911+0.14424
Rushing EPA per play+0.0732-0.11811
CPOE2.285.130
Explosive play rate10.1%49.3%28
Points per game25.31023.015
Points per drive2.35112.3320
Red zone TD rate67.7%1061.1%13
3rd down conversion41.7%938.0%11
Turnovers per game0.7540.8927
Sack rate3.6%67.3%6
Penalties per game6.996.425

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Patriots and Chiefs recent results

New England Patriots

Wk 9vsGreen Bay PackersL27-45
Wk 8@Miami DolphinsW24-19
Wk 7@Chicago BearsL24-30
Wk 6vsNew York JetsW26-19
Wk 5vsLas Vegas RaidersW45-17

Kansas City Chiefs

Wk 9vsNew York JetsW35-12
Wk 8@Denver BroncosL24-28
Wk 7@Seattle SeahawksL3-20
Wk 6vsLos Angeles ChargersW22-6
Wk 4@Las Vegas RaidersW30-27

Players to watch season totals

New England Patriots

  • Drake MayeQB · #10178/272, 2,282 yds, 18 TD, 11 INT
  • Rhamondre StevensonRB · #38102 car, 399 yds, 2 TD
  • Hunter HenryTE · #8532 rec, 361 yds, 2 TD
  • DeMario DouglasWR · #331 rec, 434 yds, 4 TD

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Patrick MahomesQB · #15177/263, 2,037 yds, 14 TD, 4 INT
  • Kenneth Walker IIIRB · #9159 car, 872 yds, 7 TD
  • Travis KelceTE · #8733 rec, 482 yds, 2 TD
  • Xavier WorthyWR · #133 rec, 278 yds, 1 TD

Patriots vs. Chiefs: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Patriots vs. Chiefs?
The ratings project New England Patriots 21, Kansas City Chiefs 24, 45.4 total points.
Who is favored, the Patriots or the Chiefs?
The ratings make the Chiefs 2.5-point favorites with a 58% chance to win.
When and where is Patriots vs. Chiefs?
Mon, Dec 21 · 8:15 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs' home field.

More Week 15 predictions

All Week 15 gamesNew England PatriotsKansas City Chiefs