PFR

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington CommandersWeek 15 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Northwest Stadium · Commanders at home

The ratings project Washington Commanders 24, Atlanta Falcons 22 (WAS -1.4) and give the Commanders a 54% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.

Falcons vs. Commanders prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 42
Atlanta Falcons

3-6 · No. 20 in the ratings

22
Washington Commanders

3-5-1 · No. 21 in the ratings

24
ATL 46%Win probability54% WAS
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadWAS -1.4——
Total45.7——
Win prob.WAS 54%——
Moneyline——

No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 15 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatATLWAS
Record3-63-5-1
Division4th, NFC S3rd, NFC E
Rating-2.120-2.221
Adj Off21.62422.020
Adj Def23.82024.223
Points per game20.92321.821
Points allowed per game24.82024.820
Playoff odds13%13%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Falcons vs. Commanders matchup stats season to date

When the Falcons have the ball

StatATLoffWASdef
Yards per pass attempt6.1196.319
Yards per rush4.944.112
Starting field positionOwn 2832Own 3121
EPA per play-0.06124+0.03720
Adj. EPA per play-0.03124+0.02623
Success rate43.6%1546.0%26
Passing EPA per play-0.10328+0.09019
Rushing EPA per play-0.0085-0.06325
CPOE-6.5322.624
Explosive play rate8.6%157.0%9
Points per game20.92324.820
Points per drive2.5482.3219
Red zone TD rate62.5%1974.3%29
3rd down conversion34.9%2739.3%16
Turnovers per game1.78271.568
Sack rate5.2%124.6%27
Penalties per game6.786.622

When the Commanders have the ball

StatWASoffATLdef
Yards per pass attempt5.9206.114
Yards per rush4.5104.623
Starting field positionOwn 3024Own 3429
EPA per play-0.01219+0.00014
Adj. EPA per play-0.01318+0.00215
Success rate43.0%1744.4%21
Passing EPA per play+0.05119+0.05315
Rushing EPA per play-0.12620-0.08220
CPOE2.093.425
Explosive play rate7.5%229.2%23
Points per game21.82124.820
Points per drive1.90262.1613
Red zone TD rate66.7%1164.9%17
3rd down conversion33.3%3042.6%24
Turnovers per game0.7861.2218
Sack rate5.6%155.5%18
Penalties per game7.2147.219

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Falcons and Commanders recent results

Atlanta Falcons

Wk 9NCincinnati BengalsL17-34
Wk 8@Tampa Bay BuccaneersL0-16
Wk 7vsSan Francisco 49ersW29-20
Wk 6vsChicago BearsL23-31
Wk 5vsBaltimore RavensL23-30OT

Washington Commanders

Wk 10@New York GiantsW24-21
Wk 9vsLos Angeles RamsL13-20
Wk 8vsPhiladelphia EaglesW27-10
Wk 6@San Francisco 49ersL17-23
Wk 5vsNew York GiantsT27-27OT

Players to watch season totals

Atlanta Falcons

  • Michael Penix Jr.QB · #9124/199, 1,444 yds, 10 TD, 6 INT
  • Bijan RobinsonRB · #7169 car, 880 yds, 5 TD
  • Drake LondonWR · #544 rec, 692 yds, 1 TD
  • Kyle PittsTE · #825 rec, 220 yds, 4 TD

Washington Commanders

  • Jayden DanielsQB · #5138/213, 1,499 yds, 10 TD, 2 INT
  • Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · #2267 car, 239 yds, 2 TD
  • Stefon DiggsWR · #336 rec, 386 yds, 6 TD
  • Antonio WilliamsWR · #1428 rec, 326 yds, 2 TD

Falcons vs. Commanders: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Falcons vs. Commanders?
The ratings project Atlanta Falcons 22, Washington Commanders 24, 45.7 total points.
Who is favored, the Falcons or the Commanders?
The ratings make the Commanders 1.4-point favorites with a 54% chance to win.
When and where is Falcons vs. Commanders?
Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET at Northwest Stadium, the Commanders' home field.

More Week 15 predictions

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