PFR

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo BillsWeek 12 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Highmark Stadium · Bills at home

The ratings project Buffalo Bills 27, Kansas City Chiefs 22 (BUF -4.3) and give the Bills a 63% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.

Chiefs vs. Bills prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 81
Kansas City Chiefs

6-2 · No. 8 in the ratings

22
Buffalo Bills

7-1 · No. 2 in the ratings

27
KC 37%Win probability63% BUF
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadBUF -4.3——
Total48.9——
Win prob.BUF 63%——
Moneyline——

No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 12 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatKCBUF
Record6-27-1
Division2nd, AFC W1st, AFC E
Rating+3.08+5.82
Adj Off23.91127.91
Adj Def20.9522.112
Points per game25.31032.01
Points allowed per game17.9323.416
Playoff odds93%100%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Chiefs vs. Bills matchup stats season to date

When the Chiefs have the ball

StatKCoffBUFdef
Yards per pass attempt7.276.013
Yards per rush5.314.09
Starting field positionOwn 3112Own 3118
EPA per play+0.1194+0.01917
Adj. EPA per play+0.0497-0.0318
Success rate48.3%445.7%25
Passing EPA per play+0.14911+0.07116
Rushing EPA per play+0.0732-0.08617
CPOE2.28-3.54
Explosive play rate10.1%48.5%18
Points per game25.31023.416
Points per drive2.35112.1714
Red zone TD rate67.7%1066.7%20
3rd down conversion41.7%938.6%12
Turnovers per game0.7541.5010
Sack rate3.6%64.8%23
Penalties per game6.997.316

When the Bills have the ball

StatBUFoffKCdef
Yards per pass attempt7.535.811
Yards per rush4.883.73
Starting field positionOwn 342Own 3012
EPA per play+0.1403-0.0538
Adj. EPA per play+0.0771-0.0229
Success rate47.7%641.3%7
Passing EPA per play+0.2503+0.02311
Rushing EPA per play-0.0014-0.1755
CPOE4.06-4.33
Explosive play rate11.6%16.6%5
Points per game32.0117.93
Points per drive3.0111.887
Red zone TD rate69.0%750.0%4
3rd down conversion43.2%836.7%10
Turnovers per game1.50221.5010
Sack rate5.7%174.3%31
Penalties per game8.5306.523

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Chiefs and Bills recent results

Kansas City Chiefs

Wk 9vsNew York JetsW35-12
Wk 8@Denver BroncosL24-28
Wk 7@Seattle SeahawksL3-20
Wk 6vsLos Angeles ChargersW22-6
Wk 4@Las Vegas RaidersW30-27

Buffalo Bills

Wk 9@Minnesota VikingsW23-6
Wk 8vsBaltimore RavensW36-10
Wk 6@Las Vegas RaidersW33-30
Wk 5@Los Angeles RamsW37-34OT
Wk 4vsNew England PatriotsL26-29

Players to watch season totals

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Patrick MahomesQB · #15177/263, 2,037 yds, 14 TD, 4 INT
  • Kenneth Walker IIIRB · #9159 car, 872 yds, 7 TD
  • Travis KelceTE · #8733 rec, 482 yds, 2 TD
  • Xavier WorthyWR · #133 rec, 278 yds, 1 TD

Buffalo Bills

  • Josh AllenQB · #17156/236, 2,027 yds, 12 TD, 6 INT
  • James CookRB · #4169 car, 814 yds, 8 TD
  • Khalil ShakirWR · #1031 rec, 412 yds, 1 TD
  • Dalton KincaidTE · #8630 rec, 429 yds, 2 TD

Chiefs vs. Bills: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Chiefs vs. Bills?
The ratings project Kansas City Chiefs 22, Buffalo Bills 27, 48.9 total points.
Who is favored, the Chiefs or the Bills?
The ratings make the Bills 4.3-point favorites with a 63% chance to win.
When and where is Chiefs vs. Bills?
Thu, Nov 26 · 8:20 PM ET at Highmark Stadium, the Bills' home field.

More Week 12 predictions

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