PFR

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo BillsWeek 11 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Highmark Stadium · Bills at homeAFC East division game

The ratings project Buffalo Bills 30, Miami Dolphins 18 (BUF -11.9) and give the Bills a 82% chance to win. The market line is BUF -16.5 with a total of 46.5, so the model is 4.6 points toward the Dolphins.

Dolphins vs. Bills prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 23
Miami Dolphins

1-7 · No. 29 in the ratings

18
Buffalo Bills

7-1 · No. 2 in the ratings

30
MIA 18%Win probability82% BUF
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadBUF -11.9BUF -16.5MIA +4.6
Total47.346.5Over 0.8
Win prob.BUF 82%BUF 91%-9 pts
Moneyline—MIA +1000 · BUF -1800

Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 11 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatMIABUF
Record1-77-1
Division4th, AFC E1st, AFC E
Rating-4.629+5.82
Adj Off19.33227.91
Adj Def23.92122.112
Points per game15.83132.01
Points allowed per game25.02423.416
Playoff odds0%100%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Dolphins vs. Bills matchup stats season to date

When the Dolphins have the ball

StatMIAoffBUFdef
Yards per pass attempt5.7226.013
Yards per rush4.4134.09
Starting field positionOwn 2831Own 3118
EPA per play-0.06726+0.01917
Adj. EPA per play-0.04326-0.0318
Success rate39.2%2945.7%25
Passing EPA per play-0.01524+0.07116
Rushing EPA per play-0.14122-0.08617
CPOE-4.630-3.54
Explosive play rate8.0%178.5%18
Points per game15.83123.416
Points per drive1.70282.1714
Red zone TD rate54.2%2666.7%20
3rd down conversion41.6%1038.6%12
Turnovers per game1.25161.5010
Sack rate8.6%304.8%23
Penalties per game7.5197.316

When the Bills have the ball

StatBUFoffMIAdef
Yards per pass attempt7.537.332
Yards per rush4.884.214
Starting field positionOwn 342Own 3731
EPA per play+0.1403+0.11132
Adj. EPA per play+0.0771+0.05231
Success rate47.7%648.4%32
Passing EPA per play+0.2503+0.25531
Rushing EPA per play-0.0014-0.06922
CPOE4.0610.832
Explosive play rate11.6%18.8%19
Points per game32.0125.024
Points per drive3.0112.7432
Red zone TD rate69.0%762.9%16
3rd down conversion43.2%847.4%29
Turnovers per game1.50220.8829
Sack rate5.7%174.5%29
Penalties per game8.5307.316

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Dolphins and Bills recent results

Miami Dolphins

Wk 9vsDetroit LionsL9-19
Wk 8vsNew England PatriotsL19-24
Wk 7@New York JetsW28-25
Wk 5vsCincinnati BengalsL24-31
Wk 4@Minnesota VikingsL10-15

Buffalo Bills

Wk 9@Minnesota VikingsW23-6
Wk 8vsBaltimore RavensW36-10
Wk 6@Las Vegas RaidersW33-30
Wk 5@Los Angeles RamsW37-34OT
Wk 4vsNew England PatriotsL26-29

Players to watch season totals

Miami Dolphins

  • Malik WillisQB · #2121/208, 1,396 yds, 6 TD, 6 INT
  • Ollie Gordon IIRB · #0107 car, 463 yds, 4 TD
  • Malik WashingtonWR · #633 rec, 350 yds, 1 TD
  • Greg DulcichTE · #8524 rec, 270 yds, 0 TD

Buffalo Bills

  • Josh AllenQB · #17156/236, 2,027 yds, 12 TD, 6 INT
  • James CookRB · #4169 car, 814 yds, 8 TD
  • Khalil ShakirWR · #1031 rec, 412 yds, 1 TD
  • Dalton KincaidTE · #8630 rec, 429 yds, 2 TD

Dolphins vs. Bills: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Dolphins vs. Bills?
The ratings project Miami Dolphins 18, Buffalo Bills 30, 47.3 total points.
Who is favored, the Dolphins or the Bills?
The market favors the Bills by 16.5 points (BUF -16.5). The ratings make the Bills 11.9-point favorites with a 82% chance to win.
What is the over/under for Dolphins vs. Bills?
The market total is 46.5; the ratings project 47.3 points.
When and where is Dolphins vs. Bills?
Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET at Highmark Stadium, the Bills' home field.

More Week 11 predictions

All Week 11 gamesMiami DolphinsBuffalo BillsWeek 17 meeting at MIA