PFR

Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City ChiefsWeek 11 Prediction, Odds and Spread

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Chiefs at home

The ratings project Kansas City Chiefs 27, Arizona Cardinals 19 (KC -8.8) and give the Chiefs a 75% chance to win. The market line is KC -14.0 with a total of 42.5, so the model is 5.2 points toward the Cardinals.

Cardinals vs. Chiefs prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 30
Arizona Cardinals

3-6 · No. 28 in the ratings

19
Kansas City Chiefs

6-2 · No. 8 in the ratings

27
ARI 25%Win probability75% KC
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadKC -8.8KC -14.0ARI +5.2
Total45.942.5Over 3.4
Win prob.KC 75%KC 87%-12 pts
Moneyline—ARI +650 · KC -1000

Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 11 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatARIKC
Record3-66-2
Division4th, NFC W2nd, AFC W
Rating-4.428+3.08
Adj Off21.32523.911
Adj Def25.73120.95
Points per game19.82625.310
Points allowed per game28.33117.93
Playoff odds1%93%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Cardinals vs. Chiefs matchup stats season to date

When the Cardinals have the ball

StatARIoffKCdef
Yards per pass attempt5.1295.811
Yards per rush4.2203.73
Starting field positionOwn 3026Own 3012
EPA per play-0.01921-0.0538
Adj. EPA per play-0.01720-0.0229
Success rate44.0%1241.3%7
Passing EPA per play+0.01323+0.02311
Rushing EPA per play-0.07813-0.1755
CPOE1.114-4.33
Explosive play rate5.3%316.6%5
Points per game19.82617.93
Points per drive1.94251.887
Red zone TD rate46.0%3150.0%4
3rd down conversion38.0%1536.7%10
Turnovers per game1.0081.5010
Sack rate5.6%164.3%31
Penalties per game7.6206.523

When the Chiefs have the ball

StatKCoffARIdef
Yards per pass attempt7.276.927
Yards per rush5.314.318
Starting field positionOwn 3112Own 3122
EPA per play+0.1194+0.08529
Adj. EPA per play+0.0497+0.03926
Success rate48.3%443.6%15
Passing EPA per play+0.14911+0.27632
Rushing EPA per play+0.0732-0.1567
CPOE2.28-0.714
Explosive play rate10.1%48.3%15
Points per game25.31028.331
Points per drive2.35112.6229
Red zone TD rate67.7%1073.2%27
3rd down conversion41.7%940.7%20
Turnovers per game0.7540.7830
Sack rate3.6%66.0%15
Penalties per game6.996.425

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Cardinals and Chiefs recent results

Arizona Cardinals

Wk 9@Seattle SeahawksL3-17
Wk 8@Dallas CowboysW33-30OT
Wk 7vsDenver BroncosL16-30
Wk 6@Los Angeles RamsW18-16
Wk 5vsDetroit LionsL21-45

Kansas City Chiefs

Wk 9vsNew York JetsW35-12
Wk 8@Denver BroncosL24-28
Wk 7@Seattle SeahawksL3-20
Wk 6vsLos Angeles ChargersW22-6
Wk 4@Las Vegas RaidersW30-27

Players to watch season totals

Arizona Cardinals

  • Gardner MinshewQB · #1538/53, 354 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
  • Tyler AllgeierRB · #2289 car, 369 yds, 2 TD
  • Trey McBrideTE · #8573 rec, 598 yds, 5 TD
  • Michael WilsonWR · #1451 rec, 546 yds, 2 TD

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Patrick MahomesQB · #15177/263, 2,037 yds, 14 TD, 4 INT
  • Kenneth Walker IIIRB · #9159 car, 872 yds, 7 TD
  • Travis KelceTE · #8733 rec, 482 yds, 2 TD
  • Xavier WorthyWR · #133 rec, 278 yds, 1 TD

Cardinals vs. Chiefs: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Cardinals vs. Chiefs?
The ratings project Arizona Cardinals 19, Kansas City Chiefs 27, 45.9 total points.
Who is favored, the Cardinals or the Chiefs?
The market favors the Chiefs by 14.0 points (KC -14.0). The ratings make the Chiefs 8.8-point favorites with a 75% chance to win.
What is the over/under for Cardinals vs. Chiefs?
The market total is 42.5; the ratings project 45.9 points.
When and where is Cardinals vs. Chiefs?
Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs' home field.

More Week 11 predictions

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