Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston TexansWeek 11 Prediction, Odds and Spread
Reliant Stadium · Texans at homeAFC South division game
The ratings project Houston Texans 28, Indianapolis Colts 21 (HOU -7.1) and give the Texans a 71% chance to win. The market line is HOU -10.0 with a total of 44.5, so the model is 2.9 points toward the Colts.
Colts vs. Texans prediction: score, spread and over/under
Projected scoreThrill 37
Indianapolis Colts
212-7 · No. 23 in the ratings
Houston Texans
283-5 · No. 10 in the ratings
IND 29%Win probability71% HOU
| vs. marketPrediction vs. the market | Model | Market | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -7.1 | HOU -10.0 | IND +2.9 |
| Total | 48.8 | 44.5 | Over 4.3 |
| Win prob.probability | HOU 71% | HOU 79% | -8 pts |
| Moneyline | — | IND +350 · HOU -455 | |
Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 11 lines · How the projections work
Tale of the tape season to date
| Stat | IND | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-7 | 3-5 |
| Division | 3rd, AFC S | 2nd, AFC S |
| Rating | -3.023 | +2.610 |
| Adj Off | 22.020 | 25.17 |
| Adj Def | 25.125 | 22.514 |
| Points per game | 20.424 | 26.19 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.730 | 24.018 |
| Playoff odds | 0% | 28% |
Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.
Colts vs. Texans matchup stats season to date
When the Colts have the ball
| Stat | INDoff | HOUdef |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass attempt | 4.831 | 6.217 |
| Yards per rush | 4.317 | 4.011 |
| Starting field position | Own 3116 | Own 3116 |
| EPA per play | -0.11830 | +0.02018 |
| Adj. EPA per play | -0.06130 | -0.00314 |
| Success rate | 42.3%20 | 41.3%6 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.18932 | +0.08418 |
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.0136 | -0.08419 |
| CPOE | -4.129 | -1.78 |
| Explosive play rate | 7.6%20 | 9.2%25 |
| Points per game | 20.424 | 24.018 |
| Points per drive | 2.1518 | 2.2315 |
| Red zone TD rate | 63.0%17 | 75.0%30 |
| 3rd down conversion | 36.9%22 | 38.7%13 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.8929 | 1.0024 |
| Sack rate | 7.1%22 | 8.8%2 |
| Penalties per game | 6.03 | 7.514 |
When the Texans have the ball
| Stat | HOUoff | INDdef |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass attempt | 7.26 | 7.230 |
| Yards per rush | 3.730 | 5.229 |
| Starting field position | Own 2927 | Own 3226 |
| EPA per play | +0.0668 | +0.05022 |
| Adj. EPA per play | +0.0428 | +0.01420 |
| Success rate | 43.8%13 | 42.8%12 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.1897 | +0.10121 |
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.16125 | -0.02032 |
| CPOE | 1.610 | -2.37 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.8%11 | 9.9%30 |
| Points per game | 26.19 | 27.730 |
| Points per drive | 2.469 | 2.4024 |
| Red zone TD rate | 62.9%18 | 73.5%28 |
| 3rd down conversion | 39.8%13 | 32.4%5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.501 | 0.6731 |
| Sack rate | 4.8%10 | 5.9%16 |
| Penalties per game | 8.023 | 7.812 |
Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.
Colts and Texans recent results
Players to watch season totals
Indianapolis Colts
- Daniel JonesQB · #17182/302, 1,722 yds, 6 TD, 10 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRB · #28161 car, 656 yds, 8 TD
- Keenan AllenWR40 rec, 351 yds, 1 TD
- Tyler WarrenTE · #8438 rec, 275 yds, 2 TD
Houston Texans
- C.J. StroudQB · #7181/282, 2,251 yds, 16 TD, 2 INT
- Woody MarksRB · #495 car, 341 yds, 2 TD
- Dalton SchultzTE · #8635 rec, 364 yds, 0 TD
- Nico CollinsWR · #1228 rec, 384 yds, 4 TD
Colts vs. Texans: quick answers
- What is the predicted score of Colts vs. Texans?
- The ratings project Indianapolis Colts 21, Houston Texans 28, 48.8 total points.
- Who is favored, the Colts or the Texans?
- The market favors the Texans by 10.0 points (HOU -10.0). The ratings make the Texans 7.1-point favorites with a 71% chance to win.
- What is the over/under for Colts vs. Texans?
- The market total is 44.5; the ratings project 48.8 points.
- When and where is Colts vs. Texans?
- Thu, Nov 19 · 8:15 PM ET at Reliant Stadium, the Texans' home field.
More Week 11 predictions
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Carolina Panthers
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Giants
- Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
- New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
- Tennessee Titans vs. Dallas Cowboys
- New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Commanders
All Week 11 gamesIndianapolis ColtsHouston TexansWeek 3 meeting at IND