PFR

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver BroncosWeek 11 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Empower Field at Mile High · Broncos at homeAFC West division game

The ratings project Denver Broncos 29, Las Vegas Raiders 21 (DEN -7.9) and give the Broncos a 73% chance to win. The market line is DEN -8.5 with a total of 41.5, so the model is 0.6 points toward the Raiders.

Raiders vs. Broncos prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 26
Las Vegas Raiders

4-5 · No. 27 in the ratings

21
Denver Broncos

7-2 · No. 11 in the ratings

29
LV 27%Win probability73% DEN
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadDEN -7.9DEN -8.5LV +0.6
Total49.741.5Over 8.2
Win prob.DEN 73%DEN 78%-5 pts
Moneyline—LV +340 · DEN -440

Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 11 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatLVDEN
Record4-57-2
Division3rd, AFC W1st, AFC W
Rating-3.927+2.511
Adj Off23.61423.515
Adj Def27.53221.07
Points per game26.4822.020
Points allowed per game29.83220.710
Playoff odds7%96%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Raiders vs. Broncos matchup stats season to date

When the Raiders have the ball

StatLVoffDENdef
Yards per pass attempt6.995.76
Yards per rush3.1324.624
Starting field positionOwn 371Own 284
EPA per play+0.01216-0.00913
Adj. EPA per play-0.01419-0.01712
Success rate43.5%1641.8%9
Passing EPA per play+0.15310+0.01310
Rushing EPA per play-0.23430-0.04726
CPOE0.516-0.417
Explosive play rate7.4%238.0%13
Points per game26.4820.710
Points per drive2.8631.928
Red zone TD rate62.2%2055.6%9
3rd down conversion43.8%641.2%21
Turnovers per game1.44201.4414
Sack rate3.0%26.4%12
Penalties per game6.038.19

When the Broncos have the ball

StatDENoffLVdef
Yards per pass attempt5.6247.128
Yards per rush3.9275.332
Starting field positionOwn 3019Own 297
EPA per play+0.01315+0.08028
Adj. EPA per play+0.02112+0.04930
Success rate40.5%2847.8%31
Passing EPA per play+0.08516+0.18628
Rushing EPA per play-0.09916-0.06623
CPOE-1.1244.729
Explosive play rate6.5%2910.2%31
Points per game22.02029.832
Points per drive2.01232.6330
Red zone TD rate64.5%1469.8%24
3rd down conversion32.4%3244.0%26
Turnovers per game0.6731.568
Sack rate3.2%35.5%17
Penalties per game7.7217.911

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Raiders and Broncos recent results

Las Vegas Raiders

Wk 9@San Francisco 49ersL17-38
Wk 8@New York JetsW38-33
Wk 7vsLos Angeles RamsL21-35
Wk 6vsBuffalo BillsL30-33
Wk 5@New England PatriotsL17-45

Denver Broncos

Wk 9@Carolina PanthersW26-21
Wk 8vsKansas City ChiefsW28-24
Wk 7@Arizona CardinalsW30-16
Wk 6vsSeattle SeahawksW17-14OT
Wk 5@Los Angeles ChargersW23-17

Players to watch season totals

Las Vegas Raiders

  • Kirk CousinsQB202/315, 2,340 yds, 20 TD, 8 INT
  • Ashton JeantyRB · #2114 car, 362 yds, 1 TD
  • Brock BowersTE · #8948 rec, 658 yds, 6 TD
  • Michael MayerTE · #8739 rec, 388 yds, 1 TD

Denver Broncos

  • Bo NixQB · #10174/287, 1,730 yds, 11 TD, 4 INT
  • J.K. DobbinsRB · #2798 car, 324 yds, 3 TD
  • Jaylen WaddleWR · #1730 rec, 337 yds, 2 TD
  • Courtland SuttonWR · #1425 rec, 266 yds, 2 TD

Raiders vs. Broncos: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Raiders vs. Broncos?
The ratings project Las Vegas Raiders 21, Denver Broncos 29, 49.7 total points.
Who is favored, the Raiders or the Broncos?
The market favors the Broncos by 8.5 points (DEN -8.5). The ratings make the Broncos 7.9-point favorites with a 73% chance to win.
What is the over/under for Raiders vs. Broncos?
The market total is 41.5; the ratings project 49.7 points.
When and where is Raiders vs. Broncos?
Sun, Nov 22 · 4:25 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High, the Broncos' home field.

More Week 11 predictions

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