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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit LionsWeek 11 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Ford Field · Lions at home

The ratings project Detroit Lions 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 (DET -2.7) and give the Lions a 58% chance to win. The market line is DET -3.5 with a total of 47.5, so the model is 0.8 points toward the Buccaneers.

Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 76
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3-6 · No. 16 in the ratings

22
Detroit Lions

6-2 · No. 9 in the ratings

24
TB 42%Win probability58% DET
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadDET -2.7DET -3.5TB +0.8
Total46.047.5Under 1.5
Win prob.DET 58%DET 62%-4 pts
Moneyline—TB +150 · DET -180

Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 11 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatTBDET
Record3-66-2
Division3rd, NFC S2nd, NFC N
Rating+1.616+2.89
Adj Off22.81725.35
Adj Def21.2822.615
Points per game22.41827.85
Points allowed per game19.8723.617
Playoff odds52%82%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Buccaneers vs. Lions matchup stats season to date

When the Buccaneers have the ball

StatTBoffDETdef
Yards per pass attempt4.8306.116
Yards per rush5.134.316
Starting field positionOwn 335Own 282
EPA per play-0.10128+0.08630
Adj. EPA per play-0.04727+0.02422
Success rate41.1%2644.4%20
Passing EPA per play-0.16530+0.17527
Rushing EPA per play-0.0278-0.11512
CPOE-3.6273.527
Explosive play rate8.6%149.5%29
Points per game22.41823.617
Points per drive2.04212.3320
Red zone TD rate50.0%2968.6%21
3rd down conversion36.3%2344.4%27
Turnovers per game1.67251.0024
Sack rate8.6%297.1%8
Penalties per game7.0116.523

When the Lions have the ball

StatDEToffTBdef
Yards per pass attempt6.9106.012
Yards per rush4.693.87
Starting field positionOwn 328Own 3120
EPA per play+0.1047-0.1602
Adj. EPA per play+0.0506-0.0862
Success rate48.8%340.3%3
Passing EPA per play+0.2374-0.1472
Rushing EPA per play-0.07712-0.1852
CPOE1.412-2.65
Explosive play rate10.4%36.5%3
Points per game27.8519.87
Points per drive2.7461.834
Red zone TD rate64.1%1648.4%3
3rd down conversion37.2%2134.5%9
Turnovers per game0.6322.221
Sack rate6.1%204.9%21
Penalties per game7.0116.721

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Buccaneers and Lions recent results

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Wk 9@Chicago BearsL24-27
Wk 8vsAtlanta FalconsW16-0
Wk 7@Carolina PanthersW43-13
Wk 6vsPittsburgh SteelersL19-26OT
Wk 5@Dallas CowboysW24-16

Detroit Lions

Wk 9@Miami DolphinsW19-9
Wk 8vsMinnesota VikingsW19-15
Wk 7vsGreen Bay PackersW20-17
Wk 5@Arizona CardinalsW45-21
Wk 4@Carolina PanthersL26-32

Players to watch season totals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Baker MayfieldQB · #686/142, 922 yds, 3 TD, 4 INT
  • Bucky IrvingRB · #7167 car, 825 yds, 7 TD
  • Emeka EgbukaWR · #231 rec, 278 yds, 2 TD
  • Chris Godwin Jr.WR · #1429 rec, 259 yds, 0 TD

Detroit Lions

  • Jared GoffQB · #16185/273, 2,134 yds, 15 TD, 2 INT
  • Jahmyr GibbsRB · #0177 car, 847 yds, 9 TD
  • Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · #1461 rec, 657 yds, 5 TD
  • Sam LaPortaTE · #8735 rec, 399 yds, 3 TD

Buccaneers vs. Lions: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Buccaneers vs. Lions?
The ratings project Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22, Detroit Lions 24, 46.0 total points.
Who is favored, the Buccaneers or the Lions?
The market favors the Lions by 3.5 points (DET -3.5). The ratings make the Lions 2.7-point favorites with a 58% chance to win.
What is the over/under for Buccaneers vs. Lions?
The market total is 47.5; the ratings project 46.0 points.
When and where is Buccaneers vs. Lions?
Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET at Ford Field, the Lions' home field.

More Week 11 predictions

All Week 11 gamesTampa Bay BuccaneersDetroit Lions