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Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ersWeek 11 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Estadio Banorte (neutral site)

The ratings project San Francisco 49ers 22, Minnesota Vikings 20 (SF -2.1) and give the 49ers a 56% chance to win. The market line is SF -3.5 with a total of 45.5, so the model is 1.4 points toward the Vikings.

Vikings vs. 49ers prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 72
Minnesota Vikings

6-2 · No. 13 in the ratings

20
San Francisco 49ers

7-1 · No. 4 in the ratings

22
MIN 44%Win probability56% SF
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadSF -2.1SF -3.5MIN +1.4
Total41.045.5Under 4.5
Win prob.SF 56%SF 64%-8 pts
Moneyline—MIN +170 · SF -205

Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 11 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatMINSF
Record6-27-1
Division3rd, NFC N1st, NFC W
Rating+2.213+4.34
Adj Off20.82625.84
Adj Def18.6121.69
Points per game18.32729.43
Points allowed per game14.5119.56
Playoff odds83%97%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Vikings vs. 49ers matchup stats season to date

When the Vikings have the ball

StatMINoffSFdef
Yards per pass attempt5.2275.89
Yards per rush4.3153.41
Starting field positionOwn 334Own 3227
EPA per play-0.15131-0.0637
Adj. EPA per play-0.07731-0.0356
Success rate37.1%3043.4%14
Passing EPA per play-0.11729+0.02412
Rushing EPA per play-0.20327-0.2081
CPOE-2.9263.426
Explosive play rate7.6%194.5%1
Points per game18.32719.56
Points per drive1.57302.3320
Red zone TD rate52.6%2750.0%4
3rd down conversion33.3%3040.4%18
Turnovers per game1.0081.634
Sack rate8.0%264.7%25
Penalties per game5.416.327

When the 49ers have the ball

StatSFoffMINdef
Yards per pass attempt8.014.92
Yards per rush4.954.421
Starting field positionOwn 3113Own 3011
EPA per play+0.1641-0.1681
Adj. EPA per play+0.0723-0.0861
Success rate52.5%136.7%1
Passing EPA per play+0.2901-0.1831
Rushing EPA per play-0.0013-0.1498
CPOE4.93-6.81
Explosive play rate10.7%28.0%12
Points per game29.4314.51
Points per drive2.9521.471
Red zone TD rate87.9%142.3%1
3rd down conversion51.7%231.2%3
Turnovers per game1.25161.634
Sack rate2.9%110.3%1
Penalties per game6.368.010

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Vikings and 49ers recent results

Minnesota Vikings

Wk 9vsBuffalo BillsL6-23
Wk 8@Detroit LionsL15-19
Wk 7vsIndianapolis ColtsW16-10
Wk 5@New Orleans SaintsW23-13
Wk 4vsMiami DolphinsW15-10

San Francisco 49ers

Wk 9vsLas Vegas RaidersW38-17
Wk 7@Atlanta FalconsL20-29
Wk 6vsWashington CommandersW23-17
Wk 5@Seattle SeahawksW32-29
Wk 4vsDenver BroncosW24-14

Players to watch season totals

Minnesota Vikings

  • Kyler MurrayQB · #1100/154, 1,022 yds, 5 TD, 3 INT
  • Aaron JonesRB · #33115 car, 474 yds, 2 TD
  • T.J. HockensonTE · #8735 rec, 328 yds, 3 TD
  • Justin JeffersonWR · #1831 rec, 393 yds, 4 TD

San Francisco 49ers

  • Brock PurdyQB · #13163/236, 1,980 yds, 17 TD, 5 INT
  • Christian McCaffreyRB · #23102 car, 457 yds, 9 TD
  • George KittleTE · #8538 rec, 483 yds, 5 TD
  • Mike EvansWR · #527 rec, 420 yds, 3 TD

Vikings vs. 49ers: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Vikings vs. 49ers?
The ratings project Minnesota Vikings 20, San Francisco 49ers 22, 41.0 total points.
Who is favored, the Vikings or the 49ers?
The market favors the 49ers by 3.5 points (SF -3.5). The ratings make the 49ers 2.1-point favorites with a 56% chance to win.
What is the over/under for Vikings vs. 49ers?
The market total is 45.5; the ratings project 41.0 points.
When and where is Vikings vs. 49ers?
Sun, Nov 22 · 8:20 PM ET at Estadio Banorte, a neutral site.

More Week 11 predictions

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