PFR

New York Jets vs. Los Angeles ChargersWeek 11 Prediction, Odds and Spread

SoFi Stadium · Chargers at home

The ratings project Los Angeles Chargers 23, New York Jets 21 (LAC -2.0) and give the Chargers a 56% chance to win. The market line is LAC -1.5 with a total of 42.5, so the model is 0.5 points toward the Chargers.

Jets vs. Chargers prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 22
New York Jets

2-7 · No. 31 in the ratings

21
Los Angeles Chargers

0-8 · No. 30 in the ratings

23
NYJ 44%Win probability56% LAC
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadLAC -2.0LAC -1.5LAC +0.5
Total44.042.5Over 1.5
Win prob.LAC 56%LAC 53%+3 pts
Moneyline—NYJ +105 · LAC -125

Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 11 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatNYJLAC
Record2-70-8
Division3rd, AFC E4th, AFC W
Rating-5.131-4.630
Adj Off20.32719.829
Adj Def25.42724.424
Points per game20.22515.132
Points allowed per game24.82027.428
Playoff odds0%0%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Jets vs. Chargers matchup stats season to date

When the Jets have the ball

StatNYJoffLACdef
Yards per pass attempt6.1187.231
Yards per rush4.3164.420
Starting field positionOwn 327Own 3732
EPA per play+0.00317+0.00615
Adj. EPA per play-0.02422-0.01313
Success rate44.6%1144.0%18
Passing EPA per play+0.09415+0.07417
Rushing EPA per play-0.13721-0.07821
CPOE4.240.821
Explosive play rate9.3%79.2%26
Points per game20.22527.428
Points per drive2.02222.3623
Red zone TD rate50.0%2960.0%11
3rd down conversion35.4%2634.3%8
Turnovers per game0.7861.5010
Sack rate8.5%284.7%24
Penalties per game8.1258.46

When the Chargers have the ball

StatLACoffNYJdef
Yards per pass attempt5.2286.115
Yards per rush4.1214.317
Starting field positionOwn 2830Own 3117
EPA per play-0.22032+0.05825
Adj. EPA per play-0.09632+0.04327
Success rate36.2%3247.2%30
Passing EPA per play-0.18931+0.19530
Rushing EPA per play-0.26732-0.12210
CPOE-6.031-0.019
Explosive play rate6.8%288.3%16
Points per game15.13224.820
Points per drive1.27322.4525
Red zone TD rate52.4%2871.0%25
3rd down conversion34.2%2842.3%23
Turnovers per game2.38321.1122
Sack rate9.8%316.6%11
Penalties per game8.3295.631

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Jets and Chargers recent results

New York Jets

Wk 9@Kansas City ChiefsL12-35
Wk 8vsLas Vegas RaidersL33-38
Wk 7vsMiami DolphinsL25-28
Wk 6@New England PatriotsL19-26
Wk 5vsCleveland BrownsW17-12

Los Angeles Chargers

Wk 9vsHouston TexansL22-44
Wk 8@Los Angeles RamsL9-24
Wk 6@Kansas City ChiefsL6-22
Wk 5vsDenver BroncosL17-23
Wk 4@Seattle SeahawksL23-30

Players to watch season totals

New York Jets

  • Geno SmithQB · #7183/271, 2,078 yds, 12 TD, 3 INT
  • Braelon AllenRB · #0120 car, 598 yds, 3 TD
  • Garrett WilsonWR · #543 rec, 527 yds, 3 TD
  • Kenyon SadiqTE · #1621 rec, 235 yds, 1 TD

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Justin HerbertQB · #10144/235, 1,591 yds, 6 TD, 11 INT
  • Omarion HamptonRB · #8102 car, 369 yds, 3 TD
  • Tre HarrisWR · #921 rec, 262 yds, 0 TD
  • Oronde Gadsden IITE · #8619 rec, 172 yds, 1 TD

Jets vs. Chargers: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Jets vs. Chargers?
The ratings project New York Jets 21, Los Angeles Chargers 23, 44.0 total points.
Who is favored, the Jets or the Chargers?
The market favors the Chargers by 1.5 points (LAC -1.5). The ratings make the Chargers 2.0-point favorites with a 56% chance to win.
What is the over/under for Jets vs. Chargers?
The market total is 42.5; the ratings project 44.0 points.
When and where is Jets vs. Chargers?
Sun, Nov 22 · 4:05 PM ET at SoFi Stadium, the Chargers' home field.

More Week 11 predictions

All Week 11 gamesNew York JetsLos Angeles Chargers