PFR

New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago BearsWeek 11 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Soldier Field · Bears at home

The ratings project Chicago Bears 29, New Orleans Saints 21 (CHI -7.9) and give the Bears a 73% chance to win. The market line is CHI -9.5 with a total of 48.5, so the model is 1.6 points toward the Saints.

Saints vs. Bears prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 48
New Orleans Saints

3-5 · No. 24 in the ratings

21
Chicago Bears

7-2 · No. 7 in the ratings

29
NO 27%Win probability73% CHI
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadCHI -7.9CHI -9.5NO +1.6
Total49.348.5Over 0.8
Win prob.CHI 73%CHI 80%-7 pts
Moneyline—NO +370 · CHI -485

Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 11 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatNOCHI
Record3-57-2
Division2nd, NFC S1st, NFC N
Rating-3.224+3.27
Adj Off22.41925.26
Adj Def25.62922.011
Points per game23.11526.87
Points allowed per game27.02720.49
Playoff odds15%84%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Saints vs. Bears matchup stats season to date

When the Saints have the ball

StatNOoffCHIdef
Yards per pass attempt5.6236.926
Yards per rush3.8284.522
Starting field positionOwn 3022Own 3225
EPA per play-0.02822-0.04310
Adj. EPA per play-0.02823-0.01910
Success rate42.3%2140.8%4
Passing EPA per play+0.03221-0.0138
Rushing EPA per play-0.14123-0.09814
CPOE-0.219-0.813
Explosive play rate6.2%309.0%22
Points per game23.11520.49
Points per drive2.09202.2316
Red zone TD rate69.0%861.8%14
3rd down conversion43.5%722.8%1
Turnovers per game1.75261.2218
Sack rate5.5%148.0%3
Penalties per game6.157.415

When the Bears have the ball

StatCHIoffNOdef
Yards per pass attempt6.6126.724
Yards per rush4.4144.827
Starting field positionOwn 3111Own 3328
EPA per play+0.03812+0.05624
Adj. EPA per play+0.02013+0.04528
Success rate47.1%747.1%29
Passing EPA per play+0.11213+0.11422
Rushing EPA per play-0.06211-0.03328
CPOE4.250.720
Explosive play rate9.1%99.3%27
Points per game26.8727.027
Points per drive2.29122.5328
Red zone TD rate58.7%2162.5%15
3rd down conversion45.3%447.2%28
Turnovers per game2.11301.2517
Sack rate5.4%137.2%7
Penalties per game8.0237.316

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Saints and Bears recent results

New Orleans Saints

Wk 9vsCleveland BrownsW23-22OT
Wk 7NPittsburgh SteelersL10-16
Wk 6@New York GiantsW34-27
Wk 5vsMinnesota VikingsL13-23
Wk 4vsAtlanta FalconsL24-45

Chicago Bears

Wk 9vsTampa Bay BuccaneersW27-24
Wk 8@Seattle SeahawksW34-17
Wk 7vsNew England PatriotsW30-24
Wk 6@Atlanta FalconsW31-23
Wk 5@Green Bay PackersL7-31

Players to watch season totals

New Orleans Saints

  • Tyler ShoughQB · #6204/308, 1,986 yds, 14 TD, 6 INT
  • Kendre MillerRB57 car, 159 yds, 2 TD
  • Chris OlaveWR · #1256 rec, 734 yds, 2 TD
  • Devaughn VeleWR · #1435 rec, 365 yds, 3 TD

Chicago Bears

  • Caleb WilliamsQB · #18134/195, 1,546 yds, 8 TD, 5 INT
  • D'Andre SwiftRB · #4155 car, 576 yds, 10 TD
  • Luther Burden IIIWR · #1049 rec, 644 yds, 4 TD
  • Colston LovelandTE · #8437 rec, 363 yds, 2 TD

Saints vs. Bears: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Saints vs. Bears?
The ratings project New Orleans Saints 21, Chicago Bears 29, 49.3 total points.
Who is favored, the Saints or the Bears?
The market favors the Bears by 9.5 points (CHI -9.5). The ratings make the Bears 7.9-point favorites with a 73% chance to win.
What is the over/under for Saints vs. Bears?
The market total is 48.5; the ratings project 49.3 points.
When and where is Saints vs. Bears?
Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET at Soldier Field, the Bears' home field.

More Week 11 predictions

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