PFR

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami DolphinsWeek 17 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Hard Rock Stadium · Dolphins at homeAFC East division game

The ratings project Buffalo Bills 28, Miami Dolphins 19 (BUF -8.9) and give the Bills a 75% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.

Bills vs. Dolphins prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 32
Buffalo Bills

7-1 · No. 2 in the ratings

28
Miami Dolphins

1-7 · No. 29 in the ratings

19
BUF 75%Win probability25% MIA
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadBUF -8.9——
Total47.3——
Win prob.BUF 75%——
Moneyline——

No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 17 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatBUFMIA
Record7-11-7
Division1st, AFC E4th, AFC E
Rating+5.82-4.629
Adj Off27.9119.332
Adj Def22.11223.921
Points per game32.0115.831
Points allowed per game23.41625.024
Playoff odds100%0%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Bills vs. Dolphins matchup stats season to date

When the Bills have the ball

StatBUFoffMIAdef
Yards per pass attempt7.537.332
Yards per rush4.884.214
Starting field positionOwn 342Own 3731
EPA per play+0.1403+0.11132
Adj. EPA per play+0.0771+0.05231
Success rate47.7%648.4%32
Passing EPA per play+0.2503+0.25531
Rushing EPA per play-0.0014-0.06922
CPOE4.0610.832
Explosive play rate11.6%18.8%19
Points per game32.0125.024
Points per drive3.0112.7432
Red zone TD rate69.0%762.9%16
3rd down conversion43.2%847.4%29
Turnovers per game1.50220.8829
Sack rate5.7%174.5%29
Penalties per game8.5307.316

When the Dolphins have the ball

StatMIAoffBUFdef
Yards per pass attempt5.7226.013
Yards per rush4.4134.09
Starting field positionOwn 2831Own 3118
EPA per play-0.06726+0.01917
Adj. EPA per play-0.04326-0.0318
Success rate39.2%2945.7%25
Passing EPA per play-0.01524+0.07116
Rushing EPA per play-0.14122-0.08617
CPOE-4.630-3.54
Explosive play rate8.0%178.5%18
Points per game15.83123.416
Points per drive1.70282.1714
Red zone TD rate54.2%2666.7%20
3rd down conversion41.6%1038.6%12
Turnovers per game1.25161.5010
Sack rate8.6%304.8%23
Penalties per game7.5197.316

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Bills and Dolphins recent results

Buffalo Bills

Wk 9@Minnesota VikingsW23-6
Wk 8vsBaltimore RavensW36-10
Wk 6@Las Vegas RaidersW33-30
Wk 5@Los Angeles RamsW37-34OT
Wk 4vsNew England PatriotsL26-29

Miami Dolphins

Wk 9vsDetroit LionsL9-19
Wk 8vsNew England PatriotsL19-24
Wk 7@New York JetsW28-25
Wk 5vsCincinnati BengalsL24-31
Wk 4@Minnesota VikingsL10-15

Players to watch season totals

Buffalo Bills

  • Josh AllenQB · #17156/236, 2,027 yds, 12 TD, 6 INT
  • James CookRB · #4169 car, 814 yds, 8 TD
  • Khalil ShakirWR · #1031 rec, 412 yds, 1 TD
  • Dalton KincaidTE · #8630 rec, 429 yds, 2 TD

Miami Dolphins

  • Malik WillisQB · #2121/208, 1,396 yds, 6 TD, 6 INT
  • Ollie Gordon IIRB · #0107 car, 463 yds, 4 TD
  • Malik WashingtonWR · #633 rec, 350 yds, 1 TD
  • Greg DulcichTE · #8524 rec, 270 yds, 0 TD

Bills vs. Dolphins: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Bills vs. Dolphins?
The ratings project Buffalo Bills 28, Miami Dolphins 19, 47.3 total points.
Who is favored, the Bills or the Dolphins?
The ratings make the Bills 8.9-point favorites with a 75% chance to win.
When and where is Bills vs. Dolphins?
Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium, the Dolphins' home field.

More Week 17 predictions

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