PFR

Denver Broncos vs. New England PatriotsWeek 17 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Gillette Stadium · Patriots at home

The ratings project New England Patriots 23, Denver Broncos 22 (NE -0.9) and give the Patriots a 53% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.

Broncos vs. Patriots prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 77
Denver Broncos

7-2 · No. 11 in the ratings

22
New England Patriots

5-4 · No. 14 in the ratings

23
DEN 47%Win probability53% NE
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadNE -0.9——
Total45.1——
Win prob.NE 53%——
Moneyline——

No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 17 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatDENNE
Record7-25-4
Division1st, AFC W2nd, AFC E
Rating+2.511+1.914
Adj Off23.51524.29
Adj Def21.0722.313
Points per game22.02023.414
Points allowed per game20.71023.015
Playoff odds96%68%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Broncos vs. Patriots matchup stats season to date

When the Broncos have the ball

StatDENoffNEdef
Yards per pass attempt5.6246.723
Yards per rush3.9273.98
Starting field positionOwn 3019Own 3013
EPA per play+0.01315+0.04221
Adj. EPA per play+0.02112+0.00919
Success rate40.5%2843.8%17
Passing EPA per play+0.08516+0.14424
Rushing EPA per play-0.09916-0.11811
CPOE-1.1245.130
Explosive play rate6.5%299.3%28
Points per game22.02023.015
Points per drive2.01232.3320
Red zone TD rate64.5%1461.1%13
3rd down conversion32.4%3238.0%11
Turnovers per game0.6730.8927
Sack rate3.2%37.3%6
Penalties per game7.7216.425

When the Patriots have the ball

StatNEoffDENdef
Yards per pass attempt7.445.76
Yards per rush4.5114.624
Starting field positionOwn 3023Own 284
EPA per play+0.04010-0.00913
Adj. EPA per play+0.0309-0.01712
Success rate45.5%1041.8%9
Passing EPA per play+0.1619+0.01310
Rushing EPA per play-0.14924-0.04726
CPOE6.52-0.417
Explosive play rate9.8%58.0%13
Points per game23.41420.710
Points per drive2.10191.928
Red zone TD rate69.4%655.6%9
3rd down conversion40.4%1141.2%21
Turnovers per game2.11301.4414
Sack rate5.7%196.4%12
Penalties per game7.3188.19

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Broncos and Patriots recent results

Denver Broncos

Wk 9@Carolina PanthersW26-21
Wk 8vsKansas City ChiefsW28-24
Wk 7@Arizona CardinalsW30-16
Wk 6vsSeattle SeahawksW17-14OT
Wk 5@Los Angeles ChargersW23-17

New England Patriots

Wk 9vsGreen Bay PackersL27-45
Wk 8@Miami DolphinsW24-19
Wk 7@Chicago BearsL24-30
Wk 6vsNew York JetsW26-19
Wk 5vsLas Vegas RaidersW45-17

Players to watch season totals

Denver Broncos

  • Bo NixQB · #10174/287, 1,730 yds, 11 TD, 4 INT
  • J.K. DobbinsRB · #2798 car, 324 yds, 3 TD
  • Jaylen WaddleWR · #1730 rec, 337 yds, 2 TD
  • Courtland SuttonWR · #1425 rec, 266 yds, 2 TD

New England Patriots

  • Drake MayeQB · #10178/272, 2,282 yds, 18 TD, 11 INT
  • Rhamondre StevensonRB · #38102 car, 399 yds, 2 TD
  • Hunter HenryTE · #8532 rec, 361 yds, 2 TD
  • DeMario DouglasWR · #331 rec, 434 yds, 4 TD

Broncos vs. Patriots: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Broncos vs. Patriots?
The ratings project Denver Broncos 22, New England Patriots 23, 45.1 total points.
Who is favored, the Broncos or the Patriots?
The ratings make the Patriots 0.9-point favorites with a 53% chance to win.
When and where is Broncos vs. Patriots?
Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots' home field.

More Week 17 predictions

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