PFR

Washington Commanders vs. Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 17 Prediction, Odds and Spread

EverBank Stadium · Jaguars at home

The ratings project Jacksonville Jaguars 28, Washington Commanders 17 (JAX -11.1) and give the Jaguars a 80% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.

Commanders vs. Jaguars prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 38
Washington Commanders

3-5-1 · No. 21 in the ratings

17
Jacksonville Jaguars

6-2 · No. 1 in the ratings

28
WAS 20%Win probability80% JAX
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadJAX -11.1——
Total45.3——
Win prob.JAX 80%——
Moneyline——

No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 17 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatWASJAX
Record3-5-16-2
Division3rd, NFC E1st, AFC S
Rating-2.221+7.41
Adj Off22.02026.22
Adj Def24.22318.82
Points per game21.82128.64
Points allowed per game24.82015.12
Playoff odds13%99%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Commanders vs. Jaguars matchup stats season to date

When the Commanders have the ball

StatWASoffJAXdef
Yards per pass attempt5.9206.622
Yards per rush4.5103.86
Starting field positionOwn 3024Own 298
EPA per play-0.01219-0.1093
Adj. EPA per play-0.01318-0.0663
Success rate43.0%1741.1%5
Passing EPA per play+0.05119-0.0673
Rushing EPA per play-0.12620-0.1843
CPOE2.094.328
Explosive play rate7.5%226.8%6
Points per game21.82115.12
Points per drive1.90262.1612
Red zone TD rate66.7%1150.0%4
3rd down conversion33.3%3034.0%6
Turnovers per game0.7861.883
Sack rate5.6%155.1%19
Penalties per game7.2148.83

When the Jaguars have the ball

StatJAXoffWASdef
Yards per pass attempt7.626.319
Yards per rush4.2184.112
Starting field positionOwn 328Own 3121
EPA per play+0.1135+0.03720
Adj. EPA per play+0.0564+0.02623
Success rate46.3%946.0%26
Passing EPA per play+0.2315+0.09019
Rushing EPA per play-0.0279-0.06325
CPOE2.472.624
Explosive play rate9.5%67.0%9
Points per game28.6424.820
Points per drive2.7272.3219
Red zone TD rate75.8%274.3%29
3rd down conversion46.4%339.3%16
Turnovers per game0.7541.568
Sack rate4.9%114.6%27
Penalties per game7.3176.622

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Commanders and Jaguars recent results

Washington Commanders

Wk 10@New York GiantsW24-21
Wk 9vsLos Angeles RamsL13-20
Wk 8vsPhiladelphia EaglesW27-10
Wk 6@San Francisco 49ersL17-23
Wk 5vsNew York GiantsT27-27OT

Jacksonville Jaguars

Wk 9@Baltimore RavensW33-10
Wk 8vsIndianapolis ColtsW42-7
Wk 6NHouston TexansL31-34
Wk 5NPhiladelphia EaglesW19-17
Wk 4@Cincinnati BengalsW22-17

Players to watch season totals

Washington Commanders

  • Jayden DanielsQB · #5138/213, 1,499 yds, 10 TD, 2 INT
  • Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · #2267 car, 239 yds, 2 TD
  • Stefon DiggsWR · #336 rec, 386 yds, 6 TD
  • Antonio WilliamsWR · #1428 rec, 326 yds, 2 TD

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Trevor LawrenceQB · #16146/224, 1,932 yds, 18 TD, 4 INT
  • Bhayshul TutenRB · #33122 car, 521 yds, 4 TD
  • Brenton StrangeTE · #8530 rec, 356 yds, 1 TD
  • Parker WashingtonWR · #1129 rec, 493 yds, 5 TD

Commanders vs. Jaguars: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Commanders vs. Jaguars?
The ratings project Washington Commanders 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 28, 45.3 total points.
Who is favored, the Commanders or the Jaguars?
The ratings make the Jaguars 11.1-point favorites with a 80% chance to win.
When and where is Commanders vs. Jaguars?
Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET at EverBank Stadium, the Jaguars' home field.

More Week 17 predictions

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