PFR

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay PackersWeek 10 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Lambeau Field · Packers at homeNFC North division game

The ratings project Green Bay Packers 20, Minnesota Vikings 19 (GB -1.7) and give the Packers a 55% chance to win. The market line is GB -3.0 with a total of 41.5, so the model is 1.3 points toward the Vikings.

Vikings vs. Packers prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 72
Minnesota Vikings

6-2 · No. 13 in the ratings

19
Green Bay Packers

6-3 · No. 12 in the ratings

20
MIN 45%Win probability55% GB
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadGB -1.7GB -3.0MIN +1.3
Total39.041.5Under 2.5
Win prob.GB 55%GB 58%-3 pts
Moneyline—MIN +130 · GB -155

Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 10 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatMINGB
Record6-26-3
Division3rd, NFC N4th, NFC N
Rating+2.213+2.412
Adj Off20.82623.911
Adj Def18.6121.69
Points per game18.32724.012
Points allowed per game14.5121.211
Playoff odds83%63%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Vikings vs. Packers matchup stats season to date

When the Vikings have the ball

StatMINoffGBdef
Yards per pass attempt5.2275.43
Yards per rush4.3154.113
Starting field positionOwn 334Own 296
EPA per play-0.15131-0.0509
Adj. EPA per play-0.07731-0.0327
Success rate37.1%3044.4%19
Passing EPA per play-0.11729-0.0275
Rushing EPA per play-0.20327-0.09216
CPOE-2.926-1.29
Explosive play rate7.6%197.0%8
Points per game18.32721.211
Points per drive1.57301.866
Red zone TD rate52.6%2768.6%21
3rd down conversion33.3%3041.7%22
Turnovers per game1.0082.112
Sack rate8.0%266.6%10
Penalties per game5.416.128

When the Packers have the ball

StatGBoffMINdef
Yards per pass attempt7.084.92
Yards per rush3.2314.421
Starting field positionOwn 326Own 3011
EPA per play+0.0459-0.1681
Adj. EPA per play+0.02910-0.0861
Success rate40.8%2736.7%1
Passing EPA per play+0.2016-0.1831
Rushing EPA per play-0.25531-0.1498
CPOE1.113-6.81
Explosive play rate9.2%88.0%12
Points per game24.01214.51
Points per drive2.19151.471
Red zone TD rate58.1%2242.3%1
3rd down conversion37.8%1831.2%3
Turnovers per game1.22141.634
Sack rate4.4%810.3%1
Penalties per game8.2268.010

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Vikings and Packers recent results

Minnesota Vikings

Wk 9vsBuffalo BillsL6-23
Wk 8@Detroit LionsL15-19
Wk 7vsIndianapolis ColtsW16-10
Wk 5@New Orleans SaintsW23-13
Wk 4vsMiami DolphinsW15-10

Green Bay Packers

Wk 9@New England PatriotsW45-27
Wk 8vsCarolina PanthersW27-19
Wk 7@Detroit LionsL17-20
Wk 6vsDallas CowboysW23-13
Wk 5vsChicago BearsW31-7

Players to watch season totals

Minnesota Vikings

  • Kyler MurrayQB · #1100/154, 1,022 yds, 5 TD, 3 INT
  • Aaron JonesRB · #33115 car, 474 yds, 2 TD
  • T.J. HockensonTE · #8735 rec, 328 yds, 3 TD
  • Justin JeffersonWR · #1831 rec, 393 yds, 4 TD

Green Bay Packers

  • Jordan LoveQB · #10215/341, 2,618 yds, 19 TD, 6 INT
  • MarShawn LloydRB · #3257 car, 149 yds, 2 TD
  • Matthew GoldenWR · #053 rec, 783 yds, 5 TD
  • Christian WatsonWR · #949 rec, 879 yds, 7 TD

Vikings vs. Packers: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Vikings vs. Packers?
The ratings project Minnesota Vikings 19, Green Bay Packers 20, 39.0 total points.
Who is favored, the Vikings or the Packers?
The market favors the Packers by 3.0 points (GB -3.0). The ratings make the Packers 1.7-point favorites with a 55% chance to win.
What is the over/under for Vikings vs. Packers?
The market total is 41.5; the ratings project 39.0 points.
When and where is Vikings vs. Packers?
Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET at Lambeau Field, the Packers' home field.

More Week 10 predictions

All Week 10 gamesMinnesota VikingsGreen Bay PackersWeek 1 meeting at MIN