PFR

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta FalconsWeek 10 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Falcons at home

The ratings project Kansas City Chiefs 24, Atlanta Falcons 20 (KC -3.6) and give the Chiefs a 61% chance to win. The market line is KC -3.0 with a total of 47.5, so the model is 0.6 points toward the Chiefs.

Chiefs vs. Falcons prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 50
Kansas City Chiefs

6-2 · No. 8 in the ratings

24
Atlanta Falcons

3-6 · No. 20 in the ratings

20
KC 61%Win probability39% ATL
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadKC -3.6KC -3.0KC +0.6
Total44.347.5Under 3.2
Win prob.KC 61%KC 62%-1 pts
Moneyline—KC -185 · ATL +154

Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 10 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatKCATL
Record6-23-6
Division2nd, AFC W4th, NFC S
Rating+3.08-2.120
Adj Off23.91121.624
Adj Def20.9523.820
Points per game25.31020.923
Points allowed per game17.9324.820
Playoff odds93%13%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Chiefs vs. Falcons matchup stats season to date

When the Chiefs have the ball

StatKCoffATLdef
Yards per pass attempt7.276.114
Yards per rush5.314.623
Starting field positionOwn 3112Own 3429
EPA per play+0.1194+0.00014
Adj. EPA per play+0.0497+0.00215
Success rate48.3%444.4%21
Passing EPA per play+0.14911+0.05315
Rushing EPA per play+0.0732-0.08220
CPOE2.283.425
Explosive play rate10.1%49.2%23
Points per game25.31024.820
Points per drive2.35112.1613
Red zone TD rate67.7%1064.9%17
3rd down conversion41.7%942.6%24
Turnovers per game0.7541.2218
Sack rate3.6%65.5%18
Penalties per game6.997.219

When the Falcons have the ball

StatATLoffKCdef
Yards per pass attempt6.1195.811
Yards per rush4.943.73
Starting field positionOwn 2832Own 3012
EPA per play-0.06124-0.0538
Adj. EPA per play-0.03124-0.0229
Success rate43.6%1541.3%7
Passing EPA per play-0.10328+0.02311
Rushing EPA per play-0.0085-0.1755
CPOE-6.532-4.33
Explosive play rate8.6%156.6%5
Points per game20.92317.93
Points per drive2.5481.887
Red zone TD rate62.5%1950.0%4
3rd down conversion34.9%2736.7%10
Turnovers per game1.78271.5010
Sack rate5.2%124.3%31
Penalties per game6.786.523

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Chiefs and Falcons recent results

Kansas City Chiefs

Wk 9vsNew York JetsW35-12
Wk 8@Denver BroncosL24-28
Wk 7@Seattle SeahawksL3-20
Wk 6vsLos Angeles ChargersW22-6
Wk 4@Las Vegas RaidersW30-27

Atlanta Falcons

Wk 9NCincinnati BengalsL17-34
Wk 8@Tampa Bay BuccaneersL0-16
Wk 7vsSan Francisco 49ersW29-20
Wk 6vsChicago BearsL23-31
Wk 5vsBaltimore RavensL23-30OT

Players to watch season totals

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Patrick MahomesQB · #15177/263, 2,037 yds, 14 TD, 4 INT
  • Kenneth Walker IIIRB · #9159 car, 872 yds, 7 TD
  • Travis KelceTE · #8733 rec, 482 yds, 2 TD
  • Xavier WorthyWR · #133 rec, 278 yds, 1 TD

Atlanta Falcons

  • Michael Penix Jr.QB · #9124/199, 1,444 yds, 10 TD, 6 INT
  • Bijan RobinsonRB · #7169 car, 880 yds, 5 TD
  • Drake LondonWR · #544 rec, 692 yds, 1 TD
  • Kyle PittsTE · #825 rec, 220 yds, 4 TD

Chiefs vs. Falcons: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Chiefs vs. Falcons?
The ratings project Kansas City Chiefs 24, Atlanta Falcons 20, 44.3 total points.
Who is favored, the Chiefs or the Falcons?
The market favors the Chiefs by 3.0 points (KC -3.0). The ratings make the Chiefs 3.6-point favorites with a 61% chance to win.
What is the over/under for Chiefs vs. Falcons?
The market total is 47.5; the ratings project 44.3 points.
When and where is Chiefs vs. Falcons?
Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Falcons' home field.

More Week 10 predictions

All Week 10 gamesKansas City ChiefsAtlanta Falcons