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Buffalo Bills vs. New York JetsWeek 10 Prediction, Odds and Spread

MetLife Stadium · Jets at homeAFC East division game

The ratings project Buffalo Bills 30, New York Jets 20 (BUF -9.4) and give the Bills a 76% chance to win. The market line is BUF -8.5 with a total of 50.5, so the model is 0.9 points toward the Bills.

Bills vs. Jets prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 30
Buffalo Bills

7-1 · No. 2 in the ratings

30
New York Jets

2-7 · No. 31 in the ratings

20
BUF 76%Win probability24% NYJ
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadBUF -9.4BUF -8.5BUF +0.9
Total49.850.5Under 0.7
Win prob.BUF 76%BUF 78%-1 pts
Moneyline—BUF -425 · NYJ +330

Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 10 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatBUFNYJ
Record7-12-7
Division1st, AFC E3rd, AFC E
Rating+5.82-5.131
Adj Off27.9120.327
Adj Def22.11225.427
Points per game32.0120.225
Points allowed per game23.41624.820
Playoff odds100%0%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Bills vs. Jets matchup stats season to date

When the Bills have the ball

StatBUFoffNYJdef
Yards per pass attempt7.536.115
Yards per rush4.884.317
Starting field positionOwn 342Own 3117
EPA per play+0.1403+0.05825
Adj. EPA per play+0.0771+0.04327
Success rate47.7%647.2%30
Passing EPA per play+0.2503+0.19530
Rushing EPA per play-0.0014-0.12210
CPOE4.06-0.019
Explosive play rate11.6%18.3%16
Points per game32.0124.820
Points per drive3.0112.4525
Red zone TD rate69.0%771.0%25
3rd down conversion43.2%842.3%23
Turnovers per game1.50221.1122
Sack rate5.7%176.6%11
Penalties per game8.5305.631

When the Jets have the ball

StatNYJoffBUFdef
Yards per pass attempt6.1186.013
Yards per rush4.3164.09
Starting field positionOwn 327Own 3118
EPA per play+0.00317+0.01917
Adj. EPA per play-0.02422-0.0318
Success rate44.6%1145.7%25
Passing EPA per play+0.09415+0.07116
Rushing EPA per play-0.13721-0.08617
CPOE4.24-3.54
Explosive play rate9.3%78.5%18
Points per game20.22523.416
Points per drive2.02222.1714
Red zone TD rate50.0%2966.7%20
3rd down conversion35.4%2638.6%12
Turnovers per game0.7861.5010
Sack rate8.5%284.8%23
Penalties per game8.1257.316

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Bills and Jets recent results

Buffalo Bills

Wk 9@Minnesota VikingsW23-6
Wk 8vsBaltimore RavensW36-10
Wk 6@Las Vegas RaidersW33-30
Wk 5@Los Angeles RamsW37-34OT
Wk 4vsNew England PatriotsL26-29

New York Jets

Wk 9@Kansas City ChiefsL12-35
Wk 8vsLas Vegas RaidersL33-38
Wk 7vsMiami DolphinsL25-28
Wk 6@New England PatriotsL19-26
Wk 5vsCleveland BrownsW17-12

Players to watch season totals

Buffalo Bills

  • Josh AllenQB · #17156/236, 2,027 yds, 12 TD, 6 INT
  • James CookRB · #4169 car, 814 yds, 8 TD
  • Khalil ShakirWR · #1031 rec, 412 yds, 1 TD
  • Dalton KincaidTE · #8630 rec, 429 yds, 2 TD

New York Jets

  • Geno SmithQB · #7183/271, 2,078 yds, 12 TD, 3 INT
  • Braelon AllenRB · #0120 car, 598 yds, 3 TD
  • Garrett WilsonWR · #543 rec, 527 yds, 3 TD
  • Kenyon SadiqTE · #1621 rec, 235 yds, 1 TD

Bills vs. Jets: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Bills vs. Jets?
The ratings project Buffalo Bills 30, New York Jets 20, 49.8 total points.
Who is favored, the Bills or the Jets?
The market favors the Bills by 8.5 points (BUF -8.5). The ratings make the Bills 9.4-point favorites with a 76% chance to win.
What is the over/under for Bills vs. Jets?
The market total is 50.5; the ratings project 49.8 points.
When and where is Bills vs. Jets?
Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium, the Jets' home field.

More Week 10 predictions

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