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Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis ColtsWeek 10 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Lucas Oil Stadium · Colts at home

The ratings project Indianapolis Colts 24, Miami Dolphins 21 (IND -3.0) and give the Colts a 59% chance to win. The market line is IND -3.5 with a total of 38.5, so the model is 0.5 points toward the Dolphins.

Dolphins vs. Colts prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 23
Miami Dolphins

1-7 · No. 29 in the ratings

21
Indianapolis Colts

2-7 · No. 23 in the ratings

24
MIA 41%Win probability59% IND
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadIND -3.0IND -3.5MIA +0.5
Total44.438.5Over 5.9
Win prob.IND 59%IND 64%-5 pts
Moneyline—MIA +170 · IND -205

Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 10 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatMIAIND
Record1-72-7
Division4th, AFC E3rd, AFC S
Rating-4.629-3.023
Adj Off19.33222.020
Adj Def23.92125.125
Points per game15.83120.424
Points allowed per game25.02427.730
Playoff odds0%0%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Dolphins vs. Colts matchup stats season to date

When the Dolphins have the ball

StatMIAoffINDdef
Yards per pass attempt5.7227.230
Yards per rush4.4135.229
Starting field positionOwn 2831Own 3226
EPA per play-0.06726+0.05022
Adj. EPA per play-0.04326+0.01420
Success rate39.2%2942.8%12
Passing EPA per play-0.01524+0.10121
Rushing EPA per play-0.14122-0.02032
CPOE-4.630-2.37
Explosive play rate8.0%179.9%30
Points per game15.83127.730
Points per drive1.70282.4024
Red zone TD rate54.2%2673.5%28
3rd down conversion41.6%1032.4%5
Turnovers per game1.25160.6731
Sack rate8.6%305.9%16
Penalties per game7.5197.812

When the Colts have the ball

StatINDoffMIAdef
Yards per pass attempt4.8317.332
Yards per rush4.3174.214
Starting field positionOwn 3116Own 3731
EPA per play-0.11830+0.11132
Adj. EPA per play-0.06130+0.05231
Success rate42.3%2048.4%32
Passing EPA per play-0.18932+0.25531
Rushing EPA per play-0.0136-0.06922
CPOE-4.12910.832
Explosive play rate7.6%208.8%19
Points per game20.42425.024
Points per drive2.15182.7432
Red zone TD rate63.0%1762.9%16
3rd down conversion36.9%2247.4%29
Turnovers per game1.89290.8829
Sack rate7.1%224.5%29
Penalties per game6.037.316

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Dolphins and Colts recent results

Miami Dolphins

Wk 9vsDetroit LionsL9-19
Wk 8vsNew England PatriotsL19-24
Wk 7@New York JetsW28-25
Wk 5vsCincinnati BengalsL24-31
Wk 4@Minnesota VikingsL10-15

Indianapolis Colts

Wk 9vsDallas CowboysL23-27
Wk 8@Jacksonville JaguarsL7-42
Wk 7@Minnesota VikingsL10-16
Wk 6vsTennessee TitansL20-26
Wk 5@Pittsburgh SteelersL22-34

Players to watch season totals

Miami Dolphins

  • Malik WillisQB · #2121/208, 1,396 yds, 6 TD, 6 INT
  • Ollie Gordon IIRB · #0107 car, 463 yds, 4 TD
  • Malik WashingtonWR · #633 rec, 350 yds, 1 TD
  • Greg DulcichTE · #8524 rec, 270 yds, 0 TD

Indianapolis Colts

  • Daniel JonesQB · #17182/302, 1,722 yds, 6 TD, 10 INT
  • Jonathan TaylorRB · #28161 car, 656 yds, 8 TD
  • Keenan AllenWR40 rec, 351 yds, 1 TD
  • Tyler WarrenTE · #8438 rec, 275 yds, 2 TD

Dolphins vs. Colts: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Dolphins vs. Colts?
The ratings project Miami Dolphins 21, Indianapolis Colts 24, 44.4 total points.
Who is favored, the Dolphins or the Colts?
The market favors the Colts by 3.5 points (IND -3.5). The ratings make the Colts 3.0-point favorites with a 59% chance to win.
What is the over/under for Dolphins vs. Colts?
The market total is 38.5; the ratings project 44.4 points.
When and where is Dolphins vs. Colts?
Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Colts' home field.

More Week 10 predictions

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