PFR

New England Patriots vs. Detroit LionsWeek 10 Prediction, Odds and Spread

FC Bayern Munich Stadium (neutral site)

The ratings project Detroit Lions 25, New England Patriots 24 (DET -0.8) and give the Lions a 53% chance to win. The market line is DET -2.5 with a total of 49.5, so the model is 1.7 points toward the Patriots.

Patriots vs. Lions prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 82
New England Patriots

5-4 · No. 14 in the ratings

24
Detroit Lions

6-2 · No. 9 in the ratings

25
NE 48%Win probability53% DET
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadDET -0.8DET -2.5NE +1.7
Total48.649.5Under 0.9
Win prob.DET 53%DET 57%-5 pts
Moneyline—NE +124 · DET -148

Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 10 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatNEDET
Record5-46-2
Division2nd, AFC E2nd, NFC N
Rating+1.914+2.89
Adj Off24.2925.35
Adj Def22.31322.615
Points per game23.41427.85
Points allowed per game23.01523.617
Playoff odds68%82%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Patriots vs. Lions matchup stats season to date

When the Patriots have the ball

StatNEoffDETdef
Yards per pass attempt7.446.116
Yards per rush4.5114.316
Starting field positionOwn 3023Own 282
EPA per play+0.04010+0.08630
Adj. EPA per play+0.0309+0.02422
Success rate45.5%1044.4%20
Passing EPA per play+0.1619+0.17527
Rushing EPA per play-0.14924-0.11512
CPOE6.523.527
Explosive play rate9.8%59.5%29
Points per game23.41423.617
Points per drive2.10192.3320
Red zone TD rate69.4%668.6%21
3rd down conversion40.4%1144.4%27
Turnovers per game2.11301.0024
Sack rate5.7%197.1%8
Penalties per game7.3186.523

When the Lions have the ball

StatDEToffNEdef
Yards per pass attempt6.9106.723
Yards per rush4.693.98
Starting field positionOwn 328Own 3013
EPA per play+0.1047+0.04221
Adj. EPA per play+0.0506+0.00919
Success rate48.8%343.8%17
Passing EPA per play+0.2374+0.14424
Rushing EPA per play-0.07712-0.11811
CPOE1.4125.130
Explosive play rate10.4%39.3%28
Points per game27.8523.015
Points per drive2.7462.3320
Red zone TD rate64.1%1661.1%13
3rd down conversion37.2%2138.0%11
Turnovers per game0.6320.8927
Sack rate6.1%207.3%6
Penalties per game7.0116.425

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Patriots and Lions recent results

New England Patriots

Wk 9vsGreen Bay PackersL27-45
Wk 8@Miami DolphinsW24-19
Wk 7@Chicago BearsL24-30
Wk 6vsNew York JetsW26-19
Wk 5vsLas Vegas RaidersW45-17

Detroit Lions

Wk 9@Miami DolphinsW19-9
Wk 8vsMinnesota VikingsW19-15
Wk 7vsGreen Bay PackersW20-17
Wk 5@Arizona CardinalsW45-21
Wk 4@Carolina PanthersL26-32

Players to watch season totals

New England Patriots

  • Drake MayeQB · #10178/272, 2,282 yds, 18 TD, 11 INT
  • Rhamondre StevensonRB · #38102 car, 399 yds, 2 TD
  • Hunter HenryTE · #8532 rec, 361 yds, 2 TD
  • DeMario DouglasWR · #331 rec, 434 yds, 4 TD

Detroit Lions

  • Jared GoffQB · #16185/273, 2,134 yds, 15 TD, 2 INT
  • Jahmyr GibbsRB · #0177 car, 847 yds, 9 TD
  • Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · #1461 rec, 657 yds, 5 TD
  • Sam LaPortaTE · #8735 rec, 399 yds, 3 TD

Patriots vs. Lions: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Patriots vs. Lions?
The ratings project New England Patriots 24, Detroit Lions 25, 48.6 total points.
Who is favored, the Patriots or the Lions?
The market favors the Lions by 2.5 points (DET -2.5). The ratings make the Lions 0.8-point favorites with a 53% chance to win.
What is the over/under for Patriots vs. Lions?
The market total is 49.5; the ratings project 48.6 points.
When and where is Patriots vs. Lions?
Sun, Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ET at FC Bayern Munich Stadium, a neutral site.

More Week 10 predictions

All Week 10 gamesNew England PatriotsDetroit Lions