PFR

Houston Texans vs. Cleveland BrownsWeek 10 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Huntington Bank Field · Browns at home

The ratings project Houston Texans 25, Cleveland Browns 20 (HOU -4.6) and give the Texans a 64% chance to win. The market line is HOU -4.5 with a total of 40.5, within half a point of the model.

Texans vs. Browns prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 45
Houston Texans

3-5 · No. 10 in the ratings

25
Cleveland Browns

5-4 · No. 26 in the ratings

20
HOU 64%Win probability36% CLE
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadHOU -4.6HOU -4.5HOU +0.1
Total44.740.5Over 4.2
Win prob.HOU 64%HOU 68%-4 pts
Moneyline—HOU -238 · CLE +195

Line as of Fri, Nov 13, 10:09 AM ET. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 10 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatHOUCLE
Record3-55-4
Division2nd, AFC S3rd, AFC N
Rating+2.610-3.526
Adj Off25.1719.829
Adj Def22.51423.217
Points per game26.1917.929
Points allowed per game24.01821.812
Playoff odds28%22%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Texans vs. Browns matchup stats season to date

When the Texans have the ball

StatHOUoffCLEdef
Yards per pass attempt7.265.65
Yards per rush3.7304.828
Starting field positionOwn 2927Own 3123
EPA per play+0.0668-0.01911
Adj. EPA per play+0.0428+0.00618
Success rate43.8%1342.7%11
Passing EPA per play+0.1897-0.0109
Rushing EPA per play-0.16125-0.03229
CPOE1.610-1.010
Explosive play rate8.8%1110.2%32
Points per game26.1921.812
Points per drive2.4691.999
Red zone TD rate62.9%1855.6%9
3rd down conversion39.8%1339.4%17
Turnovers per game0.5011.2218
Sack rate4.8%107.4%5
Penalties per game8.0236.128

When the Browns have the ball

StatCLEoffHOUdef
Yards per pass attempt5.9216.217
Yards per rush3.9264.011
Starting field positionOwn 2928Own 3116
EPA per play-0.06625+0.02018
Adj. EPA per play-0.04125-0.00314
Success rate42.0%2341.3%6
Passing EPA per play+0.02122+0.08418
Rushing EPA per play-0.22829-0.08419
CPOE-0.620-1.78
Explosive play rate7.4%239.2%25
Points per game17.92924.018
Points per drive1.59292.2315
Red zone TD rate—75.0%30
3rd down conversion34.2%2938.7%13
Turnovers per game1.33191.0024
Sack rate10.1%328.8%2
Penalties per game9.1327.514

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Texans and Browns recent results

Houston Texans

Wk 9@Los Angeles ChargersW44-22
Wk 7vsNew York GiantsL21-27OT
Wk 6NJacksonville JaguarsW34-31
Wk 5@Tennessee TitansW26-3
Wk 4vsDallas CowboysL30-34

Cleveland Browns

Wk 9@New Orleans SaintsL22-23OT
Wk 8@Pittsburgh SteelersL6-27
Wk 7@Tennessee TitansW27-24
Wk 6vsBaltimore RavensW13-10
Wk 5@New York JetsL12-17

Players to watch season totals

Houston Texans

  • C.J. StroudQB · #7181/282, 2,251 yds, 16 TD, 2 INT
  • Woody MarksRB · #495 car, 341 yds, 2 TD
  • Dalton SchultzTE · #8635 rec, 364 yds, 0 TD
  • Nico CollinsWR · #1228 rec, 384 yds, 4 TD

Cleveland Browns

  • Deshaun WatsonQB · #4163/249, 1,806 yds, 7 TD, 3 INT
  • Quinshon JudkinsRB · #10116 car, 385 yds, 3 TD
  • Harold Fannin Jr.TE · #4437 rec, 453 yds, 4 TD
  • KC ConcepcionWR · #137 rec, 437 yds, 1 TD

Texans vs. Browns: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Texans vs. Browns?
The ratings project Houston Texans 25, Cleveland Browns 20, 44.7 total points.
Who is favored, the Texans or the Browns?
The market favors the Texans by 4.5 points (HOU -4.5). The ratings make the Texans 4.6-point favorites with a 64% chance to win.
What is the over/under for Texans vs. Browns?
The market total is 40.5; the ratings project 44.7 points.
When and where is Texans vs. Browns?
Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET at Huntington Bank Field, the Browns' home field.

More Week 10 predictions

All Week 10 gamesHouston TexansCleveland Browns