PFR

Miami Dolphins vs. New England PatriotsWeek 18 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Gillette Stadium · Patriots at homeAFC East division game

The ratings project New England Patriots 26, Miami Dolphins 18 (NE -8.0) and give the Patriots a 73% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.

Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 19
Miami Dolphins

1-7 · No. 29 in the ratings

18
New England Patriots

5-4 · No. 14 in the ratings

26
MIA 27%Win probability73% NE
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadNE -8.0——
Total43.8——
Win prob.NE 73%——
Moneyline——

No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 18 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatMIANE
Record1-75-4
Division4th, AFC E2nd, AFC E
Rating-4.629+1.914
Adj Off19.33224.29
Adj Def23.92122.313
Points per game15.83123.414
Points allowed per game25.02423.015
Playoff odds0%68%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Dolphins vs. Patriots matchup stats season to date

When the Dolphins have the ball

StatMIAoffNEdef
Yards per pass attempt5.7226.723
Yards per rush4.4133.98
Starting field positionOwn 2831Own 3013
EPA per play-0.06726+0.04221
Adj. EPA per play-0.04326+0.00919
Success rate39.2%2943.8%17
Passing EPA per play-0.01524+0.14424
Rushing EPA per play-0.14122-0.11811
CPOE-4.6305.130
Explosive play rate8.0%179.3%28
Points per game15.83123.015
Points per drive1.70282.3320
Red zone TD rate54.2%2661.1%13
3rd down conversion41.6%1038.0%11
Turnovers per game1.25160.8927
Sack rate8.6%307.3%6
Penalties per game7.5196.425

When the Patriots have the ball

StatNEoffMIAdef
Yards per pass attempt7.447.332
Yards per rush4.5114.214
Starting field positionOwn 3023Own 3731
EPA per play+0.04010+0.11132
Adj. EPA per play+0.0309+0.05231
Success rate45.5%1048.4%32
Passing EPA per play+0.1619+0.25531
Rushing EPA per play-0.14924-0.06922
CPOE6.5210.832
Explosive play rate9.8%58.8%19
Points per game23.41425.024
Points per drive2.10192.7432
Red zone TD rate69.4%662.9%16
3rd down conversion40.4%1147.4%29
Turnovers per game2.11300.8829
Sack rate5.7%194.5%29
Penalties per game7.3187.316

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Dolphins and Patriots recent results

Miami Dolphins

Wk 9vsDetroit LionsL9-19
Wk 8vsNew England PatriotsL19-24
Wk 7@New York JetsW28-25
Wk 5vsCincinnati BengalsL24-31
Wk 4@Minnesota VikingsL10-15

New England Patriots

Wk 9vsGreen Bay PackersL27-45
Wk 8@Miami DolphinsW24-19
Wk 7@Chicago BearsL24-30
Wk 6vsNew York JetsW26-19
Wk 5vsLas Vegas RaidersW45-17

Players to watch season totals

Miami Dolphins

  • Malik WillisQB · #2121/208, 1,396 yds, 6 TD, 6 INT
  • Ollie Gordon IIRB · #0107 car, 463 yds, 4 TD
  • Malik WashingtonWR · #633 rec, 350 yds, 1 TD
  • Greg DulcichTE · #8524 rec, 270 yds, 0 TD

New England Patriots

  • Drake MayeQB · #10178/272, 2,282 yds, 18 TD, 11 INT
  • Rhamondre StevensonRB · #38102 car, 399 yds, 2 TD
  • Hunter HenryTE · #8532 rec, 361 yds, 2 TD
  • DeMario DouglasWR · #331 rec, 434 yds, 4 TD

Dolphins vs. Patriots: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Dolphins vs. Patriots?
The ratings project Miami Dolphins 18, New England Patriots 26, 43.8 total points.
Who is favored, the Dolphins or the Patriots?
The ratings make the Patriots 8.0-point favorites with a 73% chance to win.
When and where is Dolphins vs. Patriots?
Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots' home field.

More Week 18 predictions

All Week 18 gamesMiami DolphinsNew England PatriotsWeek 8 meeting at MIA