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Buffalo Bills vs. New England PatriotsWeek 13 Prediction, Odds and Spread

Gillette Stadium · Patriots at homeAFC East division game

The ratings project Buffalo Bills 27, New England Patriots 24 (BUF -2.4) and give the Bills a 57% chance to win. No market line is posted yet.

Bills vs. Patriots prediction: score, spread and over/under

Projected scoreThrill 85
Buffalo Bills

7-1 · No. 2 in the ratings

27
New England Patriots

5-4 · No. 14 in the ratings

24
BUF 57%Win probability43% NE
vs. marketModelMarketDiff
SpreadBUF -2.4——
Total50.6——
Win prob.BUF 57%——
Moneyline——

No market line is posted for this game yet. Spreads name the favorite. For information only, not betting advice. All Week 13 lines · How the projections work

Tale of the tape season to date

StatBUFNE
Record7-15-4
Division1st, AFC E2nd, AFC E
Rating+5.82+1.914
Adj Off27.9124.29
Adj Def22.11222.313
Points per game32.0123.414
Points allowed per game23.41623.015
Playoff odds100%68%

Rank out of 32 teams. Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field.

Bills vs. Patriots matchup stats season to date

When the Bills have the ball

StatBUFoffNEdef
Yards per pass attempt7.536.723
Yards per rush4.883.98
Starting field positionOwn 342Own 3013
EPA per play+0.1403+0.04221
Adj. EPA per play+0.0771+0.00919
Success rate47.7%643.8%17
Passing EPA per play+0.2503+0.14424
Rushing EPA per play-0.0014-0.11811
CPOE4.065.130
Explosive play rate11.6%19.3%28
Points per game32.0123.015
Points per drive3.0112.3320
Red zone TD rate69.0%761.1%13
3rd down conversion43.2%838.0%11
Turnovers per game1.50220.8927
Sack rate5.7%177.3%6
Penalties per game8.5306.425

When the Patriots have the ball

StatNEoffBUFdef
Yards per pass attempt7.446.013
Yards per rush4.5114.09
Starting field positionOwn 3023Own 3118
EPA per play+0.04010+0.01917
Adj. EPA per play+0.0309-0.0318
Success rate45.5%1045.7%25
Passing EPA per play+0.1619+0.07116
Rushing EPA per play-0.14924-0.08617
CPOE6.52-3.54
Explosive play rate9.8%58.5%18
Points per game23.41423.416
Points per drive2.10192.1714
Red zone TD rate69.4%666.7%20
3rd down conversion40.4%1138.6%12
Turnovers per game2.11301.5010
Sack rate5.7%194.8%23
Penalties per game7.3187.316

Regular season only, rank out of 32. Green is good for the unit in that column, red is bad. The defense column is what that defense has allowed.

Bills and Patriots recent results

Buffalo Bills

Wk 9@Minnesota VikingsW23-6
Wk 8vsBaltimore RavensW36-10
Wk 6@Las Vegas RaidersW33-30
Wk 5@Los Angeles RamsW37-34OT
Wk 4vsNew England PatriotsL26-29

New England Patriots

Wk 9vsGreen Bay PackersL27-45
Wk 8@Miami DolphinsW24-19
Wk 7@Chicago BearsL24-30
Wk 6vsNew York JetsW26-19
Wk 5vsLas Vegas RaidersW45-17

Players to watch season totals

Buffalo Bills

  • Josh AllenQB · #17156/236, 2,027 yds, 12 TD, 6 INT
  • James CookRB · #4169 car, 814 yds, 8 TD
  • Khalil ShakirWR · #1031 rec, 412 yds, 1 TD
  • Dalton KincaidTE · #8630 rec, 429 yds, 2 TD

New England Patriots

  • Drake MayeQB · #10178/272, 2,282 yds, 18 TD, 11 INT
  • Rhamondre StevensonRB · #38102 car, 399 yds, 2 TD
  • Hunter HenryTE · #8532 rec, 361 yds, 2 TD
  • DeMario DouglasWR · #331 rec, 434 yds, 4 TD

Bills vs. Patriots: quick answers

What is the predicted score of Bills vs. Patriots?
The ratings project Buffalo Bills 27, New England Patriots 24, 50.6 total points.
Who is favored, the Bills or the Patriots?
The ratings make the Bills 2.4-point favorites with a 57% chance to win.
When and where is Bills vs. Patriots?
Sun, Dec 6 · 4:25 PM ET at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots' home field.

More Week 13 predictions

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